I feel like a manager whose side is in relegation trouble. Incomprehensible home defeats, a 2-0 lead inexplicably thrown away to the team at the bottom of the league (their first home win of the season) and a managerial change in the dead of night which ended up in another negative result.

The sum total of such dreadful misfortune is the minus figure at the foot of this column. The solution? As Harry Redknapp said upon entering the dressing room at White Hart Lane: "It's time to stop taking bigger than usual risks, stop the experimentation and we'll soon be climbing the table, boys." Okay, that last bit wasn't actually said.

Now, where was I? Ah, that's right, the solution: I need to reclaim ownership of the teams I select. This might sound like some kind of psychobabble but, by "reclaiming ownership", I mean, specifically, the abandonment of the leadership experiment I have been following in recent weeks.

This week's picks will be based purely on good old-fashioned intuition. Ihad toyed with moving away from football entirely this week and contempleted JoeCalzaghe on points against Roy Jones Jr this evening but I'm determined to have one last stab at my real area of, ahem, expertise.

I find myself looking at this weekend's coupon thinking that safety first is the best way to get of this mess. To that end, this weekend's selections will concern only those teams playing at home, and not just that, but playing against teams at the opposite end of the table (or, in some cases, adifferent division).

England's FA Cup first round begins this afternoon and there are several teams who are playing at home against opponents who are in divisions at least two below theirs. I have previously pointed out that giantkilling results are the exception rather than the norm, despite the success of non-league teams like Havant and Waterlooville in last season's competition. The fact that Portsmouth were the first team outside England's big four to win the FA Cup in 17 years proves that while there tend to be one or two teams every year that cause an upset, there tend to be a lot more who fall by the wayside.

So, I feel confident enough to recommend Notts County at home to Sutton United, Leicester City at home to Stevenage Borough and Wycombe Wanderers at home to AFC Wimbledon.

However, it is my intention to spread my stake as far as it will go this weekend and structure the bet accordingly.

To the above teams, Iintend to add Partick Thistle and Queen of the South. The bet will comprise a £5 accumulator and 10 x 50p trebles. The accumulator pays a best-priced 14.1/1 while the worst-priced treble pays £1.60. The best treble pays out £2.74.