Ireland to win six nations, but no grand slam

When I was captain, I remember sitting in the room with six tables - the respective captains and coaches were at each - having an in-depth chat with Ian McGeechan while the attending media were more concerned with Martin Johnson and Clive Woodward.

Hardly anyone spoke to us, which emphasised how Scotland were rated at the start of the decade. What was obvious on Wednesday was that all six tables were equally busy, which shows how open this year's tournament is.

Marginally, the biggest crowd gathered at the Irish table, where Brian O'Driscoll and Eddie O'Sullivan were quite happy to be regarded as favourites, but recognised that it is only just.

Undoubtedly, they are in the best shape both with the make- up of their team but also because they have avoided injuries. It is an indictment of the way modern rugby is going, and how congested the season is, that the outcome of the Six Nations could well be decided in the treatment room rather than on the pitch. Whoever can get their key players back first might just be in the box seat when the trophy is presented in March.

The only injury concern Ireland have at present is over Shane Horgan, who definitely will miss the first few games and he will be a big loss to them. Some of the other Irish players get all the headlines but Horgan is one of their most effective and consistent performers and the most under-rated player in the northern hemisphere.

Ireland have two teams in the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup, which will boost them, but all three of their teams lost last weekend, including Munster tasting defeat at Thomond Park for the first time, which might affect their confidence.

Horgan excepted, they have a very settled side but face two huge games at Croke Park, against France and England.

These games will be very emotive with all the politics surrounding the stadium, but they will need to get through the first game in Cardiff before they can start thinking about those games.

France start as second favourites simply because they are France and will always be there or thereabouts. Their form in the autumn was patchy at best and they seem preoccupied with the World Cup on home soil later on this year. They will miss Frederic Michalak at stand-off but still have a very exciting team. If their heads are right, they could well retain the trophy.

Wales will be much stronger this year with a lot of their key players from the grand slam-winning side two years ago back to full fitness and form. They've also unearthed a gem in James Hook who could light up the competition. The form of Llanelli Scarlets, who advanced from a tough Heineken Cup group unbeaten will also give them a lift.

Italy have improved year-on-year and although their clubs had shockers in the Heineken Cup, most of their top players play in France and England. They could well provide a surprise this year but, let's hope, not on the third weekend against Scotland.

England are something of an unknown quantity as they have a new coach in charge who has brought back a few well-known faces as well as introducing some new ones.

The key will be how they all gel both on and off the pitch. If they do, they have good enough players to win the championship.

It highlights how far their star has fallen that we consider them to be dark horses rather than one of the favourites.

Which only leaves Scotland. How quickly the treatment room at Murrayfield empties under the guidance of James Robson will go along way in deciding how Scotland fare.

We have to hit the ground running at Twickenham next week and perform much better than in the autumn. We have a real chance of getting in about a new-look English team that might need a game to come together. With the injury situation as it is, though, a win may prove to be beyond a young Scotland team.

My tip? Ireland for the title, but not with a grand slam.