Forget the 2014 Commonwealth Games bid by Glasgow and Abuja - Halifax would have won outright on the first vote. That astonishing claim was made yesterday by a member of the executive board of the Commonwealth Games Federation at their meeting in London.

Louise Martin, chair of Scotland's Commonwealth Games Council, who had presented Glasgow's candidature file in the packed chandeliered ballroom of Langham's Hotel in London the previous day, was stunned.

"He said that if Halifax had still been in a three-way race they pulled out on financial grounds, they would have won on the first vote, which is contrary to everything I had been thinking," said Mrs Martin. "That really put me back.

"This was from a member of the board. I'm not going to identify him, but it was a Canadian supporter. I'm just letting it wash over me."

It certainly gave Scotland's bid team food for thought as the contest against Nigerian rivals Abuja begins in earnest. "Whoa! Wait a minute. Suddenly there are warning bells. Now everyone has seen Abuja's bid, but I've got to be optimistic. However, I am very wary about putting names to the countries I think will vote for us, or even the numbers."

The Scottish bid team has made presentations in 68 of the 71 countries who will vote. After nearly 550 flights there has been significant intelligence-gathering.

"Every single one of them tells you: Yes, I'll vote for you.' They've told Abuja exactly the same as well! You have got to go on trust and instinct. People will say something quite different to your face, especially when it is a close vote and a secret ballot. They'll tell you I voted for you,' but you will never know."

Despite greater inducements being offered by the Nigerians ($125,000 in cash from Abuja to every Commonwealth Games Association against $100,000 in selective development grants which may be coaching resources, or advice, from Glasgow), Mrs Martin dismisses the possibility of Abuja buying the Games.

"Our presentation was well received, and I was happy. We're always plugging that ours is an athlete-centred Games. I have to firmly believe the majority will go with what's best for the athletes.

There are 19 African Commonwealth countries and 15 from the Caribbean who might be deemed likely to align themselves with the area from which their forebears were taken in chains. So that is 34 nations, and it will take just 36 votes to secure the Games at the vote in Sri Lanka on November 9.

Mrs Martin dismisses any notion of political alignments: "From what I have heard, there are no block votes any-where," she said. "CGAs are aware they are looking after the interests of their athletes.

"I personally do not think that African and Caribbean countries will vote en bloc on sentiment, but if they decide Nigeria is the better place, then that's where they'll go.

"I'd love to say we have more yeses than nos, but where are the don't-knows sitting? It's very difficult to call. Some people were remarking today how good the Nigerian presentation was.

"So our work really begins when all the Commonwealth countries come in to Glasgow. We really have to work on them, and show them what we have got. That's the next testing time, and we'll be able to gauge better then. They will arrive in regional groupings Caribbean nations together, Oceania together, etc from mid-July to September, each staying for four days. That will be our real selling time.

"We have got to convince them what they have read, and what was said when we visited, are the absolute facts. This is what you get - no virtual reality. This is the truth."

This comment reflected a virtual element to Abuja's presentation, though 80% of their facilities are in place, mostly new, built for the 2003 African Games. Certainly the federation will be aware of stories from athletes at those games.

One, who was in Glasgow for the Commonwealth Sports Awards this year, spoke of poor sanitation and water supply, and bad food. Just one athlete's view, perhaps a disaffected one.

Certainly Glasgow continue to be mystified by Nigerian claims that they should come to Abuja in 2014 because it's the centenary of their nation: unification of the northern and southern protectorate by, "Lord Lugard, a Scot" as former military dictator Dr General Yakubu Gowon announced triumphantly.

Lugard's closest connection seems to be his birthplace, listed as Madras. But that's India, not Fife. He was from a Yorkshire missionary family, raised in Worcestershire, and educated in Lancashire before attending Sandhurst.

But it may take more than the ability to sift fact from fiction to win this race.