Labour nerves are beginning to jangle audibly at Westminster over Glasgow East. After the party's shaky start in finding a candidate, its morale was finally boosted with the arrival of Margaret "feisty" Curran, who is regarded as a no-nonsense political street-fighter.
But there are increasing signs of nervousness from Labour MPs. One big worry is that while they think they can win the poll, they fear that if this message gets out too much, then some Labour voters might take the vote for granted and not turn out. No doubt come Thursday night Gordon Brown will be biting his nails to the quick. Fasten your seatbelts, it could be a bumpy night.
A large crumb of comfort is offered to the PM today by Peter Kelner of Yougov fame, who says people are over-reacting to the prospect of a Labour defeat and that even if Labour were to lose in Glasgow East it would not be curtains for Mr B.
He points to previous Scottish by-elections - Hamilton South in 1999, Monklands East in 1994, Govan in 1973 and in 1988 as well as Hamilton in 1967 - when Labour had large swings against them.
The latter saw Nationalist icon Winnie Ewing capture Hamilton on a mind-boggling 38% swing. The SNP only need 22% in Glasgow East.
Mr K notes: "To say that Labour must win the by-election for Gordon Brown to remain Prime Minister is politically daft. It defies the key message from history that big swings to the SNP in by-elections in Labour seats are neither unprecedented, nor fatal to Labour’s national prospects."
We shall see.
The day after the by-election the PM will be at Warwick University for Labour's national policy forum to discuss the next election manifesto when he will be ambushed by the left.
The trade unions - whose members have already struck over pay - will be in forceful mood over industrial rights while the leftwing Labour Representation Cttee today put out its own shopping list of demands from troop withdrawl from Iraq and Afghanistan to renationalising the railways and from opposing 42 days pre-charge detention to restoring the link between earnings and pensions immediately.
If Labour were to be defeated in Glasgow, then Mr B, already embattled and weakened, will mingle with his comrades as an even more wounded premier.
Despite Mr Kelner's sanguine outlook for the PM's chances even in the face of a Glasgow loss, many might think a Labour defeat in its Scottish heartland will be the beginning of the end for one Gordon Brown.
I really don't know where they are getting their figures from. The ICM poll methodology was deeply flawed. Where are the signs of a Labour hold coming from?
I really don't know where they are getting their figures from. The ICM poll methodology was deeply flawed. Where are the signs of a Labour hold coming from?
Mr. Settle, if you can take time away from reading and posting all the Labour press releases, might you review and comment on the following.
[quote]STOP THE PRESSES. HOLD THE FRONT PAGE. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED IN GLASGOW EAST.
After reading the shrill headline in the Guardian which screasmed,
"SNP voters are defecting to us says Labour in Glasgow East"
I was expecting an whizzbang on some division in the SNP ranks.
Unfortunately all we got was the Baillieston Banshee crowing about finding a voter that was still in her camp. Instead of a SNP convert, it was a 73 yr old pensioner from Shettleston who admitted that she had stopped supporting the SNP "about four years ago". Yes, lads and lassies, that was prior to the last Westminster election, did someone forget to tell Maggie?
Now I know that Maggie Curran has been having a bad week, or was it bad month, but I was very surprised to see her issue a press release when she finally found a voter still with her. Too bad, it was one she already had in 2004 and not a change as she claimed. Can this women ever speak the truth? Or was this a press release from Mr. Marshall's 2004 campaign that was sent out by accident? I am sure that we will soon see a denial from David Cairns.
Given that Labour had almost 19,000 votes in 2004 and they are now down 15%, this non-announcement will still leave them down almost 3000 votes since last time, and that is their best case. Perhsps next time they will send out a press release when they actually find a current voter actually switching to them.. You could not make this up.[/quote]
Mr. Settle, if you can take time away from reading and posting all the Labour press releases, might you review and comment on the following.
STOP THE PRESSES. HOLD THE FRONT PAGE. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED IN GLASGOW EAST.
After reading the shrill headline in the Guardian which screasmed,
"SNP voters are defecting to us says Labour in Glasgow East"
I was expecting an whizzbang on some division in the SNP ranks.
Unfortunately all we got was the Baillieston Banshee crowing about finding a voter that was still in her camp. Instead of a SNP convert, it was a 73 yr old pensioner from Shettleston who admitted that she had stopped supporting the SNP "about four years ago". Yes, lads and lassies, that was prior to the last Westminster election, did someone forget to tell Maggie?
Now I know that Maggie Curran has been having a bad week, or was it bad month, but I was very surprised to see her issue a press release when she finally found a voter still with her. Too bad, it was one she already had in 2004 and not a change as she claimed. Can this women ever speak the truth? Or was this a press release from Mr. Marshall's 2004 campaign that was sent out by accident? I am sure that we will soon see a denial from David Cairns.
Given that Labour had almost 19,000 votes in 2004 and they are now down 15%, this non-announcement will still leave them down almost 3000 votes since last time, and that is their best case. Perhsps next time they will send out a press release when they actually find a current voter actually switching to them.. You could not make this up.
Politics
