The independence referendum planned for 2010 is "there to be won" the SNP claimed yesterday, after a poll showed a majority of Scots would vote in favour if they came under a Conservative government at Westminster.

It is the first time Alex Salmond's strategy of using a Tory victory to fuel support for independence in a referendum has been tested in this way. Asked in general how they would vote in a referendum on Scottish independence, 34% said they would vote in favour with 50% against.

But asked if the referendum took place against the backdrop of a Conservative government in power at Westminster, 50% said they would vote in favour with 41% against.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said of the YouGov survey: "The poll demonstrates that an independence referendum - and the case for equality for Scotland - is there to be won in all circumstances.

"The SNP will achieve success in our proposed referendum in 2010 on the basis of delivering successful government in Scotland - the kind of policies announced last week such as abolishing car parking charges in NHS run hospitals, plans for a massive expansion of hydro power, and our ambitious Programme for Scotland for the year ahead.

"In terms of the tale of two governments between Holyrood and Westminster, the SNP are powering ahead of Labour on every single indicator, because we are delivering the programme and the policies which meet the needs and aspirations of the Scottish people."

The poll for the Sunday Times sampled 1355 Scots last week and demonstrated the extraordinary success Alex Salmond has had in the 16 months since he became first minister.

The SNP were 16 points ahead of Labour in the Holyrood constituency voting intentions, 10 points ahead in the regional list vote and two points ahead in the Westminster vote.

But if the voting intentions were good for the SNP, the personal standings were even better. Asked who would make the best First Minister, Mr Salmond attracted 41% support, compared to 8% for Annabel Goldie. The three Labour contenders attracted 7% for Cathy Jamieson, 5% for Andy Kerr and 3% for Iain Gray, who was beaten by new Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott on 5%.

But the poll showed a hardening of the opposition to the SNP's proposals for a Local Income Tax compared to previous measures. Support for replacing council tax with LIT stood at 46%, with 31% opposed and 23% undecided.

Cathy Jamieson, Labour's acting leader, said: "People are starting to see behind the SNP misrepresentations over their so-called local income tax. This poll goes to show that hard-working Scots see through the smoke and mirrors and clearly understand that this policy will hit them in the pocket."