The RAF and the Royal Navy face substantial cuts in frontline strength in the Comprehensive Spending Review announcement to be made in parliament tomorrow.
The £4bn cost of the Navy's two new aircraft carriers and the start of the Trident nuclear submarine replacement programme will more than cancel out the 1.5% above-inflation rise in defence spending allocated to the forces in July.
Whitehall sources say that while the Army will be given priority in fiscal matters because of the urgent needs of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, the other two services will have to scrap ships and aircraft to stay within budget.
This will mean probable disbandment of two Tornado GR4 strike squadrons, including one of the three based at Lossiemouth in Scotland, and decommissioning of at least five major surface warships from next April.
The RAF cuts would mean reducing the number of fighter-bomber squadrons from eight to six at a time when battlefield support is at a premium, and British troops in Afghanistan have to rely on US and other Nato pilots for lifesaving aerial cover.
The Navy stands to lose four Type 22 frigates and a destroyer as the trade-off for the deal on the 65,000-tonne carriers, with other ships and operational capability under longer-term threat.
The move would cut the frontline surface fleet to a point where naval insiders say it would leave the RN "capable of only one small-scale operation" unless supported by more powerful allies such as the US.
Two RAF bases, one for helicopters and a fast-jet training establishment, are also in line to be axed, with RAF Odiham in Hampshire and RAF Lynton-on-Ouse in Yorkshire thought to be high on the target list.
The cuts to the air force come despite an insistence last month by Sir Glenn Torpy, chief of the air staff, that it was already "as lean as it can get" after a 2004 downsizing that saw the service lose one-quarter of its front-line squadrons, one base and 7500 personnel.
The GR4 squadrons under threat are believed to be at Lossiemouth, Morayshire, and Marham in Norfolk. Each base has three, 12-jet squadrons.
A defence source yesterday said: "Even the Army is being squeezed. Despite government assurances that urgent operational requirements for kit for Afghanistan and Iraq are met from separate contingency funds, no-one has yet received more than 60% of the overall costs. The rest comes out of the communal pot.
"The only losers are the military. The announced rises in budget are no more than spin. The bottom line is that the Treasury and the government doesn't see votes in defence and doesn't understand the financial implications of its interventionist foreign policy."
An MoD spokesman said: "No firm decisions have yet been taken. Any talks of cuts was part of discussions on a variety of options."
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