The world's most famous golf course could crumble into the North Sea by the middle of this century, according to a climate change expert.

Professor Jan Bebbington, director of the St Andrews Sustainability Institute, visualises a town where locals remember with sorrow the last Open played on the Old Course, the home of golf.

She also foresees that Scotland will be a nation of car-sharing vegetarians and the declining population due to emigration will be offset by the allocation of 580,000 "climate change refugees".

Her essay, commissioned by the David Hume Institute, was one of several reports launched at an event at the Dynamic Earth in Edinburgh yesterday which fast forward to 2050 to visualise the effect of climate change on Scotland.

Ms Bebbington was asked to base her predictions on the assumption that Scotland had attained an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Several authors, including St Andrews University rector Simon Pepper, have written as if they were delivering lectures at a World Carbon Forum to inspire countries which have fallen short of their targets.

"We are living in a time of profound change, given the broader carbon performance of the globe," wrote Ms Bebbington. "Like many of your own countries we have had to adapt to more severe winter storms, to more flooding, coastal erosion and also rising sea levels.

"We limited the effects of some of these impacts by banning building in high risk areas (some 20 years before the actual impacts were felt), progressively investing in strengthening our infrastructure and making a managed retreat from vulnerable coastal locations. This was still a painful experience, especially as we lost many historical sites on coasts - for example, many of you will remember with sorrow the last British Open played in St Andrews."

Ms Bebbington predicts the achievement of low-carbon living through the use of technology; the importance of individual and collective behaviour change, and changes in culture, values and expectations.

In what she describes as the "Scottish carbon enlightenment", she writes about a huge array of social experiments in which peoples desire to live low carbon lives unleashed creativity on a grand scale.

Ms Bebbington, who is also vice-chair (Scotland) for the Sustainable Development Commission, predicts Scotland's "most significant partnership" developing with India, with the sub-continent's infusion of technological and cultural knowledge being critical.

The report also touches on the nation's political climate with the prediction that decision-making will devolve to wider groups of people, resulting in a change of attitudes towards the political process.

By 2050, with a world population of 9.5 billion, there will have been a move towards a largely vegetarian diet, with meat being eaten "sparingly, but with great relish".

She also predicts a move towards buying hardwood furniture made in Scotland, from timber grown in Scotland.

"The world in which the speech is being delivered is one where dangerous climate change has been unleashed, albeit that the full impact of this has yet to be experienced," she warns. "Scotland is, therefore, still going to be subject to global climate change despite its reduction achievements.

"We do not know what lies around the corner as the earth systems go through tipping points.

"What we do have, however, is an understanding of how the human social systems can evolve to cope with whatever environmental, economic or social shocks arise. We have not got all the answers for all societies at all time.

"What we have, however, is the confidence, courage and resilience to find ways to live, live well and live well with others in this chaotic world we have made for ourselves.

"A combination of technological change, behaviour change and cultural adaptation will provide a platform for building a low carbon and hence more sustainable society."