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   Web Issue 3503 July 4 2009   
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A slowdown, not a slump: what the figures mean for Scots home prices
ALISON CAMPSIEJune 06 2008

Another month, another slump in house prices. The property bubble has burst.

That's the message in UK-wide figures yesterday from Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax Bank of Scotland.

HBoS said average house prices had fallen 2.4% in May compared with the previous month. A Scottish breakdown will only be available in July. So does this gloomy picture reflect reality north of the border? Scotland escaped the housing crash in 1991 and has seen a much steadier rising market in recent years.

Figures from the Registers of Scotland suggest that the average price of a house sold here was 7.4% higher in the first quarter of 2008 than in the same period in 2007. The biggest increases came in Grampian and the Borders.

Why does Scotland appear to be prospering when the rest of the UK prepares for meltdown? There is some time lag involved. The government figures relate to sales registered up to three months after purchase - they took place in the last quarter of 2007. The HBoS figures are for mortgages - people gaining approval to buy a house in a month or so.

A more detailed look behind the headlines reveals a truer - and perhaps less worrying - picture of the property market. The volume of sales in Scotland fell by 16% in the first three months of the year. The houses that are selling may be worth more, but there are fewer overall and the value of sales has dropped by around one-tenth. The implication is that fewer first-time buyers are coming to the market, perhaps because they are struggling for mortgage approval during the credit crunch.

Mairi Eckford, managing director of Countrywide, said: "Prime properties in good areas are still achieving prime prices, but if you look at areas where there are large supplies of similar house types you will see a slight correction in prices.

"Tenements are still in demand as there will never be more built. Where we are seeing the correction is in more modern housing, where builders keep building."

Estate agents in Scotland yesterday estimated the "correction" in prices at around 5% to 8% with some values dropping by 10%. The cooling down of an "overheated" market has been welcomed by some experts, with a return to more moderate prices and buying behaviour.

Bill Cullen, chairman of Clyde Property, which he set up 40 years ago, said: "What we have now is a normal market. We had an overheated market, and that is not good for the market, not good for the consumer or for the estate agent. It is not right that people would be paying 20% more for a house than its true value.

"Two years ago you would have sold a flat in Hyndland (in the west end of Glasgow) in three days. It is not right that people would buy a home in such a short space of time. You need time to think about it."

It has been estimated that selling a property in Scotland now takes 12 weeks, compared with the past average of six weeks. Homes are still going up for sale at the same rate, but with fewer buyers, prices are becoming less competitive. Fixed-price deals are becoming standard practice to speed up deals.

However, Mr Cullen said that people should not be nervous about stepping into the property market, with many people benefiting from the current climate.

"Nearly everyone who buys and sells a house is trading up and they could not be choosing a better time. Suppose the market correction in prices was 10%. You would rather save 10% on the cost of an expensive house and absorb the loss of 10% on your cheaper house."

Michael Luck, managing director of Slater Hogg & Howison, said: "Properties are still selling, but (Scotland is) not immune from what has happened in terms of credit crunch and the lowering in consumer confidence.

"However, we have got to remind ourselves that there has been an unprecedented period of growth in property prices. There has been at least 10 years of year-on-year growth."

Mr Luck said that those most affected are people who bought a new house before prices started to tumble - and before selling their existing property.

"People must remain positive. If people are buying or selling in the same market, it makes very little difference. It is all psychological.

"Yes, demand has eased off, people are much more cautious, houses are not selling as they were. The cost of living is rising. The froth has gone out of the market in some respects. But people have to remember the property market is like any other. Unless people bought last year or the year before, they are still likely to earn a profit."

The Scottish housing market may be slowing, but we are a long way from a slump.


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