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   Web Issue 3191 July 5 2008   
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One year on: the SNP takes stock
DOUGLAS FRASER, Scottish Political EditorApril 18 2008

The SNP's spring conference in Edinburgh this weekend will be more a celebration of a year in office than a decision-making forum.

These are early days for the SNP to prepare its policies for a second term after 2011, or at least for declaring its hand. But it is not too soon for the party to be campaigning. One of the main explanations for its success in sustaining momentum and building support in opinion polls is that it has entered office as if constantly in campaigning mode.

Labour did likewise when elected in 1997. But at Holyrood over the past year, the lead opposition party has struggled to find the right tone, let alone transform itself into a campaigning force to challenge the SNP. Nationalists may claim they have put themselves in the driving seat of Scottish politics, but Labour and the LibDems have played a significant part in ceding that role to them.

Alex Salmond is at his political best when he has a clear enemy in his sights, and Labour at Westminster can expect much of his attention when he speaks on Sunday afternoon. When not taking on the abolition of the 10p tax rate, he can tackle foreign policy. One of the more significant motions being put to conference is about Afghanistan, with a call for the UK presence to be scaled down to peace-keeping.

Other motions hint at ministers leaning on activists to tone down the party's big-spending instincts. The biggest ticket item could be a call for all those Scottish Government documents that get translated into Gaelic to have a Scots language treatment as well.

It could also call on the government to hold a Scottish referendum on the European reform treaty. That has not been ruled out by SNP ministers, as it could be a way of highlighting the embarrassment of the Labour UK Government for dodging its promise of a European referendum at the last election.

Perhaps the most ambitious call comes from student nationalists, who want all private cars to be run on biofuels by 2040. That may have been fed into the policy machine before the backlash began against biofuels for their impact on the environment and food prices.

Scottish Greens yesterday called for a halt on UK plans to expand their use, and the issue highlights the SNP's long-standing problem with resolving its petrol-head and its green wing.

There is, of course, a simple way of resolving all such tensions within a party that covers the various political spectrums from right to left, socially conservative to liberal, and green to enviro-sceptic. That is its independence cause.

For a governing party with only 47 out of 129 votes at Holyrood, and 78 votes united in opposition to the SNP's independence plans, it is striking how much progress Alex Salmond has made.

His party enjoys unity on the issue that contrasts with the three-party, two-parliament, one government attempt to forge a consensus on enhanced devolution. The announcement three weeks ago of Sir Kenneth Calman as chairman of that Constitutional Commission has been followed by silence on the committee's other members, and he has his work cut out if he is to report by November. Seeking to portray the commission as "one compartment on the national conversation train" is intended to signal that train's destination is agreed, even when it is anything but.

"The National Conversation on Scotland's constitutional future" launch last August by-passed Parliament and gave the party's online raw meat-eaters something to chew on. Phase two began last month and was intended to boost momentum further, engage with civic Scotland, and put pressure on the Calman commission and its backers to sign up for a referendum in 2010.

Promoting his cause in the US, Salmond sought to link the cause to America's revolutionary past. The First Minister takes the message to Brussels next week, with a speech intended to set his conversation in the context of Europe.

Another strand of the constitutional agenda was to provoke Whitehall into rows over Holyrood's powers. Labour has not disappointed him, with the constitutional war now featuring skirmishes over the Lockerbie bomber, compensation for farmers, taxation powers, council tax benefits, a share of extra prisons spending in England and of the vast London Olympics bill.

Then there is Gordon Brown's non-communication. A source close to the First Minister says he has been surprised by Downing Street's "ineptitude".

This weekend's conference at Edinburgh's Heriot-Watt University will be buoyed by two polls over the past week that show support for independence at 41%.

While the political positioning is strong, the emerging challenges for the SNP are about government. The consequences of its spending decisions in a tight Budget are now beginning to bite.

Its plans for replacing private finance of school building with a Scottish Futures Trust have becalmed council investment, and its local income tax plans have given its enemies plenty to attack.

It will be a partying weekend at the SNP's first conference in Edinburgh for 30 years, but at Holyrood, government is getting tougher.



Alex Salmond
First Minister:


The SNP's big beast and master tactician has shown he is pretty good at strategy as well, particularly on the constitution and in leadership symbolism. Keeping that big picture in mind has exposed weakness when his opponents at Holyrood force him to answer questions on detail. He reaches for his public favourability ratings as an answer to anything awkward, such as his involvement in high-profile planning decisions. Among those who answer directly to him, Parliament Minister Bruce Crawford deserves special credit for working with shifting coalitions of opposition parties to ensure the government has won crucial votes.



Nicola Sturgeon
Deputy First Minister and Health and Wellbeing Secretary:


Her quick grasp of the health brief has won widespread admiration. Within government, she moved swiftly to ensure that her department's flagship policies - saving casualty wards in Ayr and Monklands and reducing prescription charges - were not the ones to be ditched. However, the settlement for health boards is much tougher than that faced by the NHS in England, and the efficiency drive could make her life uncomfortable. A loyal deputy, she has put herself in a strong position for the succession when it comes.


John Swinney
Finance and Sustainable Development Secretary:


After his bruising experience as party leader, he has taken impressively to government and a colossal departmental responsibility. He negotiated the Budget through parliament - probably the most significant single achievement in government. His personal skills have also been crucial to winning friends across parties for a major shift in central-local government relations, while locking in the landmark council tax freeze. His energetic deputies, Stewart Stevenson and Jim Mather, have been important in reaching out to the business community.


Kenny McAskill
Justice Secretary:


The only member of the cabinet who has not grown up in Salmond's shadow, he boldly goes where others might fear to tread. His assault on the booze culture has been far from populist, and in trying to tackle prison overcrowding, he has taken on the tough task of explaining why fewer people should be sent to prisons. He was exposed on the initial failure to deliver on the policing pledge. Inviting former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish to help him on prisons and sentencing shows he is a less tribal Nationalist than others.


Fiona Hyslop
Education and Lifelong Learning Secretary:


She has had perhaps the toughest time in explaining the SNP's ditched and watered down policies: a poor spending settlement for universities, student debt remains unditched and smaller class sizes look very unlikely. She steered through abolition of the graduate endowment, and worked hard to rebuild relations with university principals. Not always guaranteed a place in Salmond's inner circle.


Richard Lochhead
Rural Affairs and Environment Secretary:


The Salmond acolyte lacks his boss's charisma, but works hard, claiming credit for shifting the Common Fisheries Policy, steering the government's most important relationship with Whitehall and Brussels, securing the key SNP farmer and fishermen support base, and pushing an innovative food policy. Deputy Michael Russell has been left to adjudicate between environment interests, drawing criticism, for instance, on allowing the continued use of snares.


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Posted by: JamesM, Edinburgh on 10:38pm Thu 17 Apr 08
I look forward to the Cyber Nats claiming that Douglas is anti-SNP either in this discussion or later in the week. When they do, I'll send a link to this.

More generally, Douglas is right about the SNP riding their luck (and enjoying incompetent opposition from Labour and the Liberals in particular). However, the dark clouds will arrive sooner all or later. It's an inexorable law of politics.

And when they do show up, they're more likely to be around massive cost over-runs on the second Forth Bridge, to pick one example. The starting cost is 105 times the notional starting cost of Holyrood, and all we've got is a notional cost for the bridge. What if it goes just 15% over budget? That's £630m less they'll have to spend on National Conversations and the like. If it goes up even half as badly as Holyrood did we'll be £18,427 million pounds in the hole. That's more than twice the annual cost of the NHS in Scotland.

Oh, and Holyrood disrupted traffic at the bottom of the Royal Mile and into the Queen's Park. Any delays to the Forth Bridge and there'll be construction disruption spreading like a bruise from both sides of the Forth for years. All the while the original bridge, repairable for a tiny fraction of the new one, will be snarled up in those problems and we'll have sacrificed connectivity for the perceived electoral advantage in Central Fife.

But maybe they'll stall this project long enough for it not to come into play until after the next election.
Posted by: Mrs I P Knightly, Scotland on 10:39pm Thu 17 Apr 08
Labour have run out of answers and well as questions.
Posted by: John Leven, Leven Fife on 11:03pm Thu 17 Apr 08
It is hard to see which is worst, Douglas,s pitiful article or JamesM,s response.

One of the main explanations for its success in sustaining momentum and building support in opinion polls is that it has entered office as if constantly in campaigning mode. The other far more likely reason, but must not be spoken by any unionists, is the fact that for the first time since devolution Scotland has a government, with politicians of stature, set against over inflated, over paid and over promoted town councilors.

You are also quite wrong to state that Nationalists claim to have put themselves in the driving seat. Totally wrong the Nationalists are in the driving seat, the opposition is just so poor it cannot keep up. If you want any proof of that think about todays FMQT, I have no further questions!!! That translates as I am too stupid to think on my feet so cannot think of a question.

Do you think the opinion polls are wrong Douglas?

JamesM who was in charge during the building of Holyrood? Which party opposed the plans? There is no luck in good government only ability. As someone once said the harder I work the luckier I get. Why would we want a link to this article? reading it once is more than enough.
Posted by: ratzo on 11:05pm Thu 17 Apr 08

not exactly pro-SNP, but a neutral piece for once from Fraser. The hint that the business of government will prove too difficult is just silly unionist piety however.
Posted by: JamesM, Edinburgh on 11:07pm Thu 17 Apr 08
That's what I'm saying; Douglas is actually singing the praises of the Ministers, by and large. Read the profiles. Only Richard Lochhead gets anything like criticism. And yes, they are by and large competent Ministers, I'm not a tribalist either.

But the bridge and other megaprojects may well cause serious problems for them: even if the second bridge is on time and on budget they'll still have wasted gargantuan amounts of money compared to repairing the existing bridge.
Posted by: democrate, central Scotland on 11:45pm Thu 17 Apr 08
#JamesM - as a matter of interest, what wd repairs to the existing Bridge involve, what wd those cost and how long wd the repairs last? Thanks.
Posted by: John Leven, Leven Fife on 11:53pm Thu 17 Apr 08
Democrate re bridge repairs.

The bridge in Lisbon Portugal is almost identical to the Forth Bridge but it carries a heavier load as the railway runs underneath the road.

An American Company, American Bridge, completely re cabled this bridge, which they claim to have achieved without disrupting the traffic using the bridge. (go to their web site and you can read about it) If this can be done on that bridge I fail to see how it cannot be done on the FRB.

I have written to newspapers about this but the letters were never printed.
Posted by: Ronald, Glasgow on 12:31am Fri 18 Apr 08
Has it really come to this that all we can discuss, in the wake of SNP

triumphs and NEW LABOURS abysmal failure is the feckin FORTH

ROAD BRIDGE?
Posted by: Ronald, Glasgow on 12:31am Fri 18 Apr 08
Has it really come to this that all we can discuss, in the wake of SNP

triumphs and NEW LABOURS abysmal failure is the feckin FORTH

ROAD BRIDGE?
Posted by: JamesM, Edinburgh on 12:33am Fri 18 Apr 08
The repair cost is estimated at between £91m and £122m:
http://news.scotsman
.com/forthbridges/Co
st-of-replacing-road
-bridge.3781361.jp

However, let's assume it goes four times over the top end budget for the sake of argument, and costs almost half a billion. Assume some of the scaremongering about the costs of temporary single-lane crossing is real.

That's an eighth of the cost of this vanity bridge, supported by all the parties except the Greens.
Posted by: megz, glasgow on 12:45am Fri 18 Apr 08
it really is amazing the contrast between salmond and brown. Both men have gotten the top job they want yet one is still on an extended honeymoon and the other...well lets face it is quite possibly on the verge of divorce even tho it has been a shorter period of time. The SNP have worked well with the constraints they have. While slab have complained about broken promises, all i can see is common sense. No wasting parlimentary time with things that will not be approved, biding time and making deals and compromises to get others through. I don't expect that all manifesto pledges will be met and i can accept that it is not a promise broken on purpose but something that is unable to be fulfilled due to unfavourable numbers. I commend the SNP for what they have achieved so far a a minority government and hope that at the next election people will appreciate the good job they are doing and increase the number of msps to get more good things done for the good of scotland and her people.

this has been a party political broadcast on behalf of.........lol
Posted by: Duns Scotus, The Borders on 12:57am Fri 18 Apr 08
JamesM - perhaps Mr Fraser's fair appraisal is because he is not forced to regurgitate a Labour Party press release.

Megz - The Times has an article on the differing fortunes of Salmond and Brown - interesting reading.
Posted by: Donald Anderson, glasgow on 5:20am Fri 18 Apr 08
Doogie must long for the days when he was allowed to Ignore SNP Conferences. The worst he can do is attack Kenny MacAskill for tackling Labour's long term problems head on.

The British State has tried hard to find sleaze and dirty linen in the opposition cupboard. All it can come up with is Eck is "cavalier" to Labour's golf course U turn and Mrs Sheridans' miniature collection.
Posted by: bluenose, Glasgow on 8:13am Fri 18 Apr 08
Duns Scotus you got a link to the article?
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 8:31am Fri 18 Apr 08

Jamie - I Hate Independence
Douglas is actually singing the praises of the Ministers, by and large.
You mean calling Salmond a "beast" is praise?

The tone of the piece is highly subjective and still old-school cynical ...
Posted by: spagan, heisker, scotland on 8:45am Fri 18 Apr 08
Its not a bad piece. Pretty impartial froma distance. My glass is half-full! This might be turning point for Douglas? Generally he's respecting the strengths of the new Government. Even Douglas couldn't describe Labour in Scotland or at Westminster in such positive terms.
Slainte Mhor
Posted by: Colin Wilson, Aberdeen on 9:35am Fri 18 Apr 08
Other motions hint at ministers leaning on activists to tone down the party's big-spending instincts. The biggest ticket item could be a call for all those Scottish Government documents that get translated into Gaelic to have a Scots language treatment as well.
This is just nonsense. It doesn't cost anything to have documents translated into Scots, because the translation is done free by language activists.
Posted by: nostress, grangemouth on 9:40am Fri 18 Apr 08
"Another strand of the constitutional agenda was to provoke Whitehall into rows over Holyrood's powers." D. Fraser

Absolute nonsense from the author of this piece. Providing sound, forward-thinking government is provocative is it. Perhaps, it is to the London parties. Maybe they're not used to such government and it's showing them up for the warmongering charlatans and gravy-train riders they are.



Posted by: Peter Thomson, Labour, where? on 9:46am Fri 18 Apr 08
I am pro independence and I think that Doug has got the first year right on the nail.

Wee Eck has done deals to get key legislation through in spite of Labourious Labour's attempts to create a lame duck parliament. Most telling was the Greens ensuring the LIT bill moves on to the next stage of Holyrood scrutiny, yesterday.

The only headless chickens on show are the Labour spokespersons who thrash left and right to try and score some Brownovitch points but end up routinely shooting themselves in the foot.

Nichol and Annabelle also lose the plot when they get shrill rather than sticking to matters in hand but both have a canny sense of when it is in their best interests to side with Wee Eck's gang. Annabelle appears most effective in holding Wee Eck to account.

The Herald and the Times behave in similar fashion to the Libdems and Conservatives where as BBC are like Labour and have lost the plot as for the Hootsmon - I wonder when the Record is going to complain of its attempts to steal the Record's market share.

For me it has been one of the most positive years in Scottish politics ever.
Posted by: Joe Middleton, Edinburgh on 10:17am Fri 18 Apr 08
There are plenty of snide remarks about the SNP in this article so I'm afraid it won't stand as any great testament of the Herald's fairness.

For Labour to moan about low public spending on Education after their own PM devised a low spending settlement is pure hypocrisy. If they are not laying a glove on the Government it is perhaps because their own case is so negative.

Are we really to believe that Wendy believes in socialism in the midst of the New Labour project? When they oppose a fair system of taxation and remove the lowest tax band?

Are we supposed to hail a constitutional convention which deliberately excludes the most logical option?

The SNP are honest about their objectives and are governing as a social democratic party, they have something Labour lacks, consistency and ambition.
Posted by: Luigi, Aberdeen on 11:51am Fri 18 Apr 08
An interesting piece, spoiled by the snide remarks - Fraser can barely conceal his misery.

The SNP's Annus Mirabilis? - yep, it has been pretty remarkable, exceeding all expectations, but the best is yet to come.

Labour's Annus Horribilis? - na, it's going to get a lot, lot worse!
Posted by: McSomeone, Scotland on 1:45pm Fri 18 Apr 08
All things considered I think the SNP have done remarkably well considering their majority and the forces aligned against them. They've made mistakes but in comparison to previous government they are so far pretty minor.

Three party politics is proving to be both effective and interesting and an effective check and control. Though still not overly impress with Scottish labour wonks who still insist on calling foul rather than growing up and taking parting in grown up debating.
Posted by: Astonished, Inverclyde on 1:46pm Fri 18 Apr 08
I have stopped reading Mr Fraser's nonsense., although I do read the comments.

From James M comments @10.38pm - I can take it this piece is at least factually accurate.


Mr Fraser pro-SNP ? You're having a laff!
Posted by: Saladin, Glasgow on 1:52pm Fri 18 Apr 08
Well done Douglas on another thoughtful and intuitive article.

No doubt the nats will screw up over LIT and issues like the rail franchise extension and the smug grin will be wiped from their faces forever.

Has anyone seen my £2,000 first time buyer gift by any chance?
Posted by: JBlackley, Florida on 2:29pm Fri 18 Apr 08
Only twenty-something posts on this article so far? I'm disappointed. I had thought it would be in the hundreds by now - in keeping with any other GH article that so much as mentions the SNP.
Posted by: nostress, grangemouth on 3:04pm Fri 18 Apr 08
Saladin,

Has anyone seen my £5000 extra tax bill as promised by Labour if the SNP got in?
Posted by: Mike MacKinnon on 3:26pm Fri 18 Apr 08
Saladin, you only get it if you're a first time buyer! Don'y kid us that Labour Supporters are looking to buy a house in glasgow! Champagne socialists, eh?

Anyway, you'll find it in the same place as Labour's five grand fine for voting SNP!
Posted by: Duns Scotus, The Borders on 4:33pm Fri 18 Apr 08
bluenose wrote:
Duns Scotus you got a link to the article?
It's here http://www.times
online.co.uk/tol/ne
ws/politics/article3
746380.ece

The article by Peter Riddell begins:

This is the tale of a Scottish politician who waited a long time for power, and who has relished the opportunity when it finally came last year. This could, perhaps should, have been Gordon Brown, but is, in fact, Alex Salmond, the real political success story of the past year. While the Brown political honeymoon was stopped in its tracks less than ten weeks after he entered 10 Downing Street, Mr Salmond’s is continuing.
Posted by: george alexander, north lanarkshire on 5:52pm Fri 18 Apr 08
Saladin wrote:
Well done Douglas on another thoughtful and intuitive article. No doubt the nats will screw up over LIT and issues like the rail franchise extension and the smug grin will be wiped from their faces forever. Has anyone seen my £2,000 first time buyer gift by any chance?
Saladin, Saladin.........you just can't help yourself can you.

Thoughtful and intuative the article may be but Douglas cannot stifle the desire to aim snide remarks at the SNP.

The £2000 gift is probably hiding in the same place as the £5000 tax increase.
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 6:35pm Fri 18 Apr 08

Blackley Flouride
Only twenty-something posts on this article so far? I'm disappointed. I had thought it would be in the hundreds by now - in keeping with any other GH article that so much as mentions the SNP.
Why the hell this guy wastes his time running down Scotland from Florida is a mystery.
Posted by: macgilleleabhar, ABERDEENHIRE on 7:27pm Fri 18 Apr 08

Easy answer to your question Los Angeles!

He's looking out at Hampden!
Posted by: Hen Broon, lanark on 8:36pm Fri 18 Apr 08
John Leven wrote:
Democrate re bridge repairs.

The bridge in Lisbon Portugal is almost identical to the Forth Bridge but it carries a heavier load as the railway runs underneath the road.

An American Company, American Bridge, completely re cabled this bridge, which they claim to have achieved without disrupting the traffic using the bridge. (go to their web site and you can read about it) If this can be done on that bridge I fail to see how it cannot be done on the FRB.

I have written to newspapers about this but the letters were never printed.
The Golden Gate Bridge has been replaced totally over the past two decades and not one closure.

There is much to be admired in the can-do American philosophy that we would do well to adopt if we are to be a successful independent nation.

The £50,000 bill for the answers to the Trump affair and Aviemore are a disgrace which Labour and The Liberals should be hounded for. It is their bitterness and jealousy that is damaging Scotland and nothing else, lets hope the voters see that when they get the chance to exterminate these two bankrupt parties.

Remember the scandal of the Ford factory that nearly came to Dundee and was scuppered by the TUC and Labour's intransigence, and self intererst. No other car manufacturer would ever look at Scotland now because of their archaic party political madness, history must not be allowed to repeat these mistakes again.

Alex Salmond and the SNP are the best chance we have of surviving the decay of the union. Unionist cringer's must be stopped, from destroying Scotland further.
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 11:30pm Fri 18 Apr 08

Good post, Hen.
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