Alex Salmond is pinning his hopes for an independence referendum on the next Westminster election, believing the outcome could shift entrenched opposition to the idea among Holyrood MSPs.
The First Minister will tomorrow set out his plans for a "national conversation", to build support for more powers at the Scottish Parliament.
It will be followed by a series of events around every part of Scotland but that use of executive resources faces opposition criticism.
The dialogue is intended to appeal to the Scottish public over the heads of the majority of MSPs who oppose a referendum. It is also a means of exploiting divisions within the Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties, who are both considering further devolution.
But in the face of firm opposition among MSPs at Holyrood, the SNP is pinning its hopes on the next Westminster election being the catalyst for a sea change in political opinion.
That election is most likely in May 2009 but there is growing pressure on Gordon Brown to call an election before then, while David Cameron's Tories are in disarray and the new Prime Minister is riding high in the polls.
Yesterday, there was further evidence of Labour's UK-wide poll lead. A YouGov survey of voting intentions put Labour on 42%, Conservatives on 32% and LibDems on 14%.
However, the pressure on Mr Brown is very different in Scotland. A poll of Scottish opinion last week made SNP "first choice" for 48%, Labour had 32% and LibDems and Tories were on 8% each.
According to a source close to the SNP leader, referendum support from 50 MSPs, 15 short of a majority, does not derail the pre-election intention of a 2010 referendum.
"We see the national conversation leading logically to a parliamentary process," he said. "By then, a lot of things can change which could be significant for Scotland".
He cited Wales, where Labour is not only in coalition with Plaid Cymru but committed to support a "yes" vote in a referendum on additional powers for the Cardiff Assembly. He also highlighted a report yesterday saying Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie has been told by Lord Forsyth, a Conservatives former Scottish Secretary, that she is making "a huge mistake" by refusing to back a referendum. As a firm unionist, Lord Forsyth believes the Tories could call Mr Salmond's bluff, force a quick referendum, and gamble that voters would say "no" to independence.
According to the executive source: "It's a fluid situation. The catalyst for that could be the next election. There's nothing like an election to change a party's position. It could be a wake-up call to Labour, to the LibDems, or the Tories could listen to what Lord Forsyth is saying."
However, a spokesman for Miss Goldie responded to Lord Forsyth: "A snap referendum is not on the agenda and we don't accept that would be the end of the argument.
"There are international comparisons that show that is not the case. What is required is stability, and we have that so long as the unionist parties stick to their guns".
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article