GERRY BRAIDEN and GRAEME SMITH

Is it a game of musical chairs, where the companies win at passengers' expense, or a rail revolution connecting the UK's biggest cities more effectively than ever?

The awarding of the UK's most extensive rail franchise, stretching from Aberdeen to Penzance, to bus and train operator Arriva yesterday suggests a bit of both.

For any frequent travellers between Scotland's capital and the English Midlands or Glasgow and Manchester Airport, life is about to get a whole lot easier.

But with unregulated fares expected to rise by 3.4% above inflation each year, despite a £1.05bn subsidy paid for by the taxpayer, the cost of an average journey on the Cross Country network is set to rise by more than 50% during the seven-and-a-half year franchise, due to run from November to April 2016.

By all accounts, the previous holders of the Cross Country franchise, Virgin Trains, did one of the better jobs running a rail service since the network was privatised. Indeed, some suggest it was a victim of its own success, over-crowding on trains and the promise of extra capacity being the key factor in Arriva's successful bid.

The company has promised 40 extra train carriages for operation on long-distance services, using high-speed trains and upgrading the existing fleet of Voyager trains currently operating on the route, which is good news for those subjected to cattle truck conditions on many Cross Country services.

But one thing Arriva cannot expect is a honeymoon period. Already, transport union TSSA has complained about Arriva's fare structure in Wales and may do so again, the LibDems have questioned whether franchising is working, while the independent rail consumer watchdog, Passenger Focus, has raised questions over the value for money aspect.

James King represents Scottish interests on Passenger Focus. He said almost one-third of 10,000 passengers surveyed had indi-cated they did not think they were receiving value for money from the Virgin fares and these could rise further under Arriva.

Mr King said: "The regulated fares are things like savers and season tickets but there are not that many season ticket holders as a proportion of all Cross Country passengers because there is a lot of leisure travel, particularly from Scotland, on Cross Country.

"It means for many journeys the only fares available are unregu-lated fares. The operators can set the value fares at a very low level - there is a quota of value fares on trains which are not very busy - but on busy trains they're allowed to set unregulated fares and fares may not be available. They may not make savers available on some busy trains and have the potential to put fares up by 50%."

And then there are the toilets.

While Arriva has suggested it will put in 30% more seating and extra luggage space, there is concern that the shop and a lavatory will be removed from trains to create the extra room.

Mr King added: "The lavatories will go from three to two and we are concerned because there are occasions when two lavatories are not working and if you are reducing the capacity it will require a very rigorous inspection regime to ensure at least one toilet is working for the whole journey."

Dr Geoff Riddington is a specialist in rail services based at Glasgow Caledonian University and a member of the Transport Research Institute.

Initially surprised Arriva secured the franchise because of Virgin's reasonable job, he believes, with the exception of the price rise, which will eventually remove the need for a subsidy, most passengers in Scotland will not notice the difference.

He said: "The few Cross Country services from Glasgow to Birmingham will be transferred to the West Coast Virgin route and shouldn't make much difference. The services to the south-west of England will go via Edinburgh and should be in smaller but more frequent trains.

"It opens up those Midlands destinations to Scots travellers, especially Leeds, but also places like Leicester and Nuneaton.

"Announcing such a price rise may not have been too clever. All the bidders said they would raise prices but I'm concerned that, on the whole, Arriva may not be as effective a company as Virgin."

One upshot of the change will be the impact on Birmingham New Street station, which will see tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of extra passengers forced to change trains if heading to places like Cheltenham, Bristol and Plymouth.

Although the lead responsibility for cross-border rail services lies with the UK Secretary of State for Transport, Scottish ministers from the previous administration provided advice on what services they would like provided to and from Scotland under the Cross Country franchise. Transport Scotland is also due to meet with Arriva in the near future to discuss the implications of the move.

But there are suggestions the body will be insisting services between Scotland and Manchester are vastly improved.

A spokeswoman said: "The then Scottish ministers welcomed the proposal to transfer operation of the important Edinburgh/Glasgow to Manchester route to the Trans-Pennine service in the belief it will be developed in a manner that meets the needs of south Scotland and the north-west of England.

"However, ministers highlighted it is important that the future Manchester services should provide a significant improvement over that which is currently available or proposed."

Arriva chief executive David Martin said: "The network has many existing strengths but our research has helped us pinpoint areas where we can improve passenger experience and make the business more efficient."

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