The risk of a Third World War sparked by China invading Taiwan is growing, the author of an influential new book on China warned last night.

Will Hutton said that as well as provoking US retaliation, such a war could draw in Japan, the Middle East and ultimately the UK.

"People say the risk of a Third World War is low but if there is one it will be between China and the US, it will involve Japan, and it will be over Taiwan," said Hutton at a session of the Aye Write! literary festival in Glasgow, sponsored by the Bank of Scotland with The Herald as its media partner.

"I would say the chances are about one in 100 but the risk is growing," he said. "Taiwan is a big island with about 25 million people on it and it was originally part of the Chinese imperial order until it was seized by the Japanese at the end of the 19th century.

"At the end of the Second World War you might have thought it would have been handed back but America held on to it until Chiang Kai-shek fled there in 1949 and created the Republic of China. The Chinese want it back and their plan is to move 20 divisions across the Straits of Taiwan."

This was the significance of the recent exercise in which China shot down one of its own satellites with a missile.

"They have shown how vulnerable satellites can be, including satellites the Americans have controlling things like cruise missiles. When the Chinese are ready to invade Taiwan they will bring down these satellites and blind the Americans," he added.

Iran, as a client state of China, would join in and attack US installations in the Gulf, the Israelis would strike at Iran, and the Middle East would be engulfed, he said.

Hutton's latest book is The Writing on the Wall: China and the West in the 21st Century.