How US surge turned the tide of Iraq’s deadly insurgency

Washington's response was "the surge", launched a year ago tomorrow, with the 82nd Airborne as the vanguard of an American troop build-up that would climb to 30,000 extra US soldiers by summer.

A year later, Iraq looks very different.

The crackdown in Baghdad and surrounding areas was seen as a last-ditch effort to salvage the American mission in Iraq and, in the words of George W Bush, give Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki "breathing space".

The concern now is how to build on the gains as forces are pulled back, and some challenges appear far from clear answers: whether Iraq's Shi'ite majority will further fray into rival factions and how much Iran will exert its influence.

Al Maliki's government is still struggling, but has tried recently to push through US-demanded political reforms for reconciliation.

US-led forces have tamped down violence and the Pentagon has forged pacts with Sunni fighters against al Qaeda, which is trying to regroup in the north of Iraq.

After a sharp initial rise in military and civilian casualties, the numbers make a strong case that the surge accomplished its main goal.

Before February 2007 was out, 1801 Iraqis and 81 US soldiers would die. By contrast, last month saw figures of 609 and 39, respectively.

Anbar province, heart of the Sunni insurgency and a bastion for al Qaeda in Iraq, fell virtually silent.

Timing helped. Sunni tribal leaders who had been fighting the Americans began in late 2006 to turn on al Qaeda, fed up with its brutality and austere brand of Islam.

US forces exploited the shift and began sponsoring similar movements in Baghdad and regions to the north and south. About 80,000 members of the so-called Awakening Councils, or Concerned Local Citizens, are now fighting with, not against, US and Iraqi forces.

Many new allies are on the American payroll while the US tries, with limited success, to persuade the government to bring them into the army, police and a civilian corps to rebuild the shattered country.

Anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al Sadr placed a freeze on his feared Mehdi Army militia, causing a dramatic fall in death-squad killings in the capital and in attacks on American forces.

The first half of 2007 saw enough casualties to make it the deadliest for American troops, with 126 killed in May alone, along with 2155 Iraqis. At least 831 Americans died in the surge year.

The far lower figures for the second half of the year have returned the pace of US losses to what they were in late 2003 and early 2004. The Iraqi death toll is down to where it was at the close of 2005.

As the US begins reversing the swell of troop strength - most of the 30,000 "surge" forces should be gone by summer - Iran has quietly placed itself in the control room of Iraq's future. Tehran has sunk deep roots inside the country's political power structure.

While the Americans say they have seen a decline in Iranian funding and arming of rogue members of al Sadr's militia, six key Shi'ite figures say Iran is pressing ahead.

Iran has sent arms, fighters and money into Iraq. The leaders of the fighters take orders from Iran and are known as the Ettelaat, shorthand for Iranian intelligence.

Seven Ettelaat commanders were said to have infiltrated more than 1000 men trained by Iran, with orders to continue harassing the Americans with roadside bombings, mortar and rocket attacks.

The Ettelaat is recruiting fighters - not only to keep American forces off-balance but also as a sleeper brigade that would open all-out warfare should the United States attack Iran, a real fear in Tehran, the Iraqi officials said.

US commander General David Petraeus said Iran's senior leaders had pledged to stop fostering violent groups in Iraq, but he noted the Americans were always alert for new tactics from Tehran.

The officials said Iran had thrown its backing behind the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council of Abdul-Aziz al Hakim, the country's most powerful Shi'ite political insider.-AP