Professor Andrew Hughes Hallet reflected (March 1) on Scotland's fiscal position since his departure. His recognition that "the best we can do is estimate the deficit on the basis of estimates of revenues expenditures made in the General Expenditures and Revenues (Gers) framework" is welcome, and in line with the findings of a recent Finance Committee evidence session.
However, readers will have reached their own judgment on the wisdom of his Zimbabwean analogy. His article then addresses three areas: the fiscal position, student destinations and growth performance On the fiscal position Professor Hughes Hallet suggests Scotland's "deficit" estimate has risen from 2%-3% to 12% of GDP in the past six years. In fact, the Gers estimate of Scottish fiscal "deficit" in 1998-99 was 7%, now estimated at 12% of GDP in 2004-05. The figure of 2%-3% he cites has only been found in alternative SNP analyses - based on assumptions that attracted no support at the recent Finance Committee Gers evidence session. Gers is a National Statistics document, produced without any political interference. The authors compile the analysis using national statistics produced by other government departments and using well-documented and established assumptions.
Professor Hughes Hallett also states that "recent evidence shows that the majority of Scotland's graduates go to jobs outside Scotland". This is not true. The most recent data (2004-05) show that 80% of all higher education graduates from Scottish higher education institutions and Scotland's colleges stayed and gained permanent employment in Scotland. Further to this, 91% of Scottish-domiciled graduates from these Scottish institutions gained permanent employment in Scotland - up from 79% in 1999.
Finally, Professor Hughes Hallett says that the small countries in Europe have grown twice as fast as Scotland in the past 10 years. He fails to specify which countries he is referring to. It is true that several big and small countries, including Spain, Ireland, Portugal and the Eastern European countries have shown exceptional growth rates over recent times. However, these countries are all in catch-up mode, starting from a much lower base than Scotland, and, as such, have more scope to increase their productive capacity at considerably faster rates.
Looking at economic welfare (GDP per capita) can provide a more nuanced picture. The most recent Smart Successful Scotland Measuring Progress report shows that Scotland's ($29,623) GDP per head is above Spain ($25,875), Portugal ($18,098), Poland ($12,410), the Czech Republic ($18,643), as well as being above the G7 countries of Germany ($28,605), Japan ($29,567), Italy ($27,312) and France ($29,554).
Wendy Alexander, MSP, The Scottish Parliament.
Everything David Price says (March 5) about the situation facing Ferguson Shipbuilders is true, and needed saying. What we see now are the final stages in a long-drawn-out campaign to dismantle the UK commercial shipbuilding and marine engineering industries. Happenstance and market forces have nothing to do with it, nor have the "high" wages paid to UK workers or the strikes often cited by an ignorant claque who have never been near a shipyard. The attitude in government was demonstrated by Geoff Hoon, who once dismissed the industries as "the metal-bashing trades". The non-commercial sector will be next and the Navy will be back to sailing on old US destroyers at a price.
I'll bet more than one architect's office is already drawing up proposals for a prestige riverside development beside Newark Castle with stunning views of the firth - Ferguson Dock, mayhap. And Inverclyde Council will tell us what a wonderful boost to the local scene it is.
Hugh V S McIntyre, 63 Pentland Avenue, Port Glasgow.
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