ANDREW McLellan's comments about prison overcrowding have provoked a debate about the numbers of people we send to jail, but that could be only the start, it seems. Scotland's chief inspector of prisons' robust comments about the wisdom of sending ever more inmates to jail without considering the consequences were widely reported, along with the slightly misleading suggestion that we might need 26 new prisons a year to accommodate prisoner growth.

With his report on Kilmarnock private prison already published, McLellan's public comments herald a busy year for the inspectorate.

Within weeks, he will publish the results of his first unannounced inspection. McLellan led a team of inspectors into Inverness Prison without warning recently, as the law permits him to do. It was something of an experiment: "a number of people feel I should use the power more often", he says, although he notes that he found little or nothing more than he would expect from a forewarned visit.

The coming months will also see a major joint inspection with the social work inspectorate of what happens when high-risk offenders are released, and another with education inspectors about opportunities for prisoners to learn.

A third thematic inspection to be published in the summer, perhaps the most controversial, will look at the remarkable numbers of Scots with mental health problems who end up in prison. "Every time I go into a prison, I'm struck by how disturbed some people are."

Some have a serious psychiatric illness, others suffer from anxiety and depression. Either way, he says, "imprisonment is almost guaranteed to make their condition worse." The report is expected to say that there are are simply too many people with mental health problems entering our prisons.

If all this has the look of tying up loose ends, that could be because McLellan is preparing to bow out as prisons inspector next year.

The former moderator of the general assembly of the Church of Scotland revealed to The Herald that a minor heart attack suffered last August has contributed to his intention to leave the post. While the heart problem hasn't left him with lasting consequences - he says it was only when his wife arrived at his hospital bed that he realised the potential seriousness - it is a factor in his decision to hand over the task to a successor.

Thus, when the Royal Warrant governing his post expires on 15 June 2009, he will not seek to renew it. "What happened to me last August was a factor. The warrant expires on my 65th birthday and, whether or not they would be prepared to renew it, I don't propose to seek a renewal."

McLellan's decision means the post won't be embroiled again in the controversy that overshadowed the departure of Clive Fairweather, the previous inspector, who eventually received a payout after sueing for unfair dismissal when the warrant was terminated despite his wish to continue in post.

McLellan also believes it may be time for a fresh view of the prison system. Given time, he suggests, anyone connected with the unusual world of prisons becomes blind to some of its peculiarities.

He says that "fresh eyes" would be good for the prison system, while stressing that he has always tried to counter the dangers of normalisation by taking someone who has never visited a jail before on every inspection. "They always tell me the same two things. One is that life for prisoners is bleaker than they thought. Secondly they notice the lack of a confrontational atmosphere in Scottish prisons."

Overcrowding could put an end to the relative peace that has reigned in Scotland's jails since the troubled 1980s, which saw a series of riots and hostage-taking incidents, McLellan says.

"Rising overcrowding has not brought with it violence on a large scale as yet. That is down to the skills of prison staff as well as the introduction of CCTV cameras. But as overcrowding continues to work its evil, these things can't be counted on to postpone it for ever."

Those who see no reason why prisoners shouldn't have to put up with overcrowding are short-sighted, he says. "People equate sharing a cell to sharing a room with a colleague at a conference. The differences are that firstly, you are sharing a room built for one person for maybe 22 hours a day, every day, secondly you usually know nothing about the person you are partnered with, except that it would be sensible to be afraid of them. And thirdly you can't get away."

The price in tension, staff morale and the difficulty of giving prisoners access to any meaningful education, work, or rehabilitative programmes, mean everyone should be concerned about overcrowding, he says. "The public safety argument should be sufficient to wake people up. Those who care about victims of crime should be as anxious as I am to see reduced overcrowding."

Meanwhile, overcrowding could result in more suicides, he says. Every Monday, for example, HMP Barlinnie in Glasgow receives another 120 prisoners from the courts. "It is almost impossible to screen those at risk of taking their own lives."

But it is tempting to ask what the purpose of McLellan's role is, given that he has raised the issue of overcrowding repeatedly in reports, as did his predecessor. McLellan's reports on Polmont have highlighted the inadequate food on offer to young male offenders, as did his predecessor's. His recent report on Cornton Vale noted that women in labour are still being escorted to hospital - and indeed giving birth - in handcuffs, despite a promise to him that this would be ended.

The one great leap forward that has occurred during his watch - the virtual ending of slopping out - has arguably much more to do with the vast cost of settling prisoners' legal claims for breach of human rights than with any inspectorate report.

McLellan insists his role is still vital. "What matters is that it ended, not whether HMCIP was instrumental," he says of slopping out. But public scrutiny has played a major part in the increased "peaceability" of the prison estate, he says.

He bats away the suggestion that the role needs more statutory powers. Comparable inspectorates have to examine issues such as value for money, systems and policy. McLellan is content to leave that to the government. "I think it is for the Scottish Prison Service to do what ministers tell them and for the minister to form his view about policy."

McLellan has now served under three justice ministers, all of whom wanted to solve overcrowding. However, he has high hopes that under MacAskill real change will occur. That may depend on a former first minister, Henry McLeish, who heads the independent prisons commission. "That could be a tipping point," McLellan says, citing real hopes that McLeish's team will come up with proposals to balance the need for a new approach with satisfying the public's desire for adequate punishments.

McLellan himself favours strengthening punishments in the community while exploring flexible sentencing, such as waiting lists for prisons, or weekend imprisonment.