Is Zimbabwe ripe for revolution on the model that swept autocracy from power in the post-Soviet bloc countries of eastern Europe? This is the hope of Pius Ncube, the Archbishop of Bulawayo who calls on Zimbabweans to take to the streets and force Robert Mugabe, the embattled president, to step down with immediate effect so that free and fair elections can be held. At present, the hope appears sadly pious, despite some promising developments. Mr Mugabe's power base within the ruling Zanu-PF party has been undermined, and the army and security forces he depends upon to stay in power must subsist on a monthly pay packet that lasts only a couple of days. Do they have the stomach to go on defending brutally the indefensible?
At least they have a wage. Most Zimbabweans are out of work and hungry. The country has the highest inflation rate in the world: 1400%. The former bread basket of Africa has, itself, become a basket case. The strategy Archbishop Ncube advocates is bold and contingent on mass, peaceful protest gaining sufficient momentum to cause the security apparatus to stand aside, hastening Mr Mugabe's toppling. A sprightly 83-year-old, he says he will run again for President in next year's poll (that would be another election to rig).
The strategy is brave, given the thuggishness of Mr Mugabe's forces. Not even respected opposition politicians are safe from the boot and the baton. Archbishop Ncube's plea is probably born of frustration. Zimbabwe teeters on the brink of collapse, yet the man responsible clings to power. The archbishop is right to say the situation cannot be allowed to continue. But the opposition is divided and impoverished. If a green, red and gold revolution (the main colours of Zimbabwe's flag) is an unrealistic option, what is realistic and achievable? Mr Mugabe exploits a reputation as liberator of southern Africa to quell criticism from his neighbours, notably South Africa, face of the vibrant, forward-looking continent. But Mr Mugabe has shown that, having secured power and the backing of the security forces, a leader can behave with impunity, even as his country collapses and his people suffer depredations on a scale shocking by African standards. Is this the standard to set for the continent, the message to send out to the wider world? If President Mbeki of South Africa thinks not, he should use his influence to force the tyrant's departure.
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