Population crisis? What population crisis? According to provisional figures published by the Registrar General yesterday, more babies were born in Scotland last year than in any year since 1998. In addition, there were fewer deaths than in 2005. In demographic terms, the outlook appears brighter than in late 2003 when, in the wake of figures showing an excess of deaths over births and a patchy record on inward migration, Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General, estimated that Scotland's population would fall below five million within six years. 2009 is only two years away, but the demographic time bomb has, fortunately, been given a longer fuse. His latest prediction for a reduction in the symbolic five million figure is 2036.

It would be unwise, however, to infer that Scotland's population problems were over. Scotland's population is becoming top heavy in the sense that more people are living longer at one end but the increase necessary at the other to fund and provide the services in the future is not keeping pace. Evidence of this comes in yesterday's report. Last year, there were double-digit percentage drops in the number of cancer, heart disease and stroke deaths, the biggest causes of death in Scotland.

This is a welcome trend but it exerts a pressure of its own. An influx of people from the EU accession countries of eastern Europe has helped ease the pressure since they pay taxes which go towards funding the public services and, in cases, provide these services themselves. Theirs has been a positive contribution upon which Scotland will have to depend, to some degree or another, in the years ahead.

The future cannot be predicted but careful planning can mitigate the impact of foreseeable negative trends (events are a different matter, as Harold Macmillan noted). Scotland's population is one such trend. It still seems to be headed in the wrong direction, even if it will be longer before the impact is felt. Such planning as there has been predicated on preparing more for gloom than doom.

The new provisional population figures suggest the response needs to be readjusted. What, for instance, will the recent upward trend in births mean for the provision of school places in an era of primaries and secondaries being closed? What will be the consequences for teacher recruitment? What of the impact on medical and social work provision, to name but two sectors where, regardless of population trends, difficulties in recruitment have meant that services have not done as much for as many people as would otherwise have been the case with full staffing complements? The Scottish Executive has a poor record on planning and managing (consider also the number of teachers without full-time jobs or the impact on the NHS of the new GPs' contract). Predicting population trends is a complex matter, as the Registrar General's revised estimates demonstrate. It demands a rigorous yet measured response on the part of ministers and officials. Are they up to it? Much depends on how they react and what they plan.