Tony Blair believes the problems of Iraq will not be solved unless the west recognises that all of the problems of the Middle East are connected. Accordingly, he advocates a joined-up policy for the entire region. There is merit in the Prime Minister's analysis. Given the turbulent state of the region, however, his hopes for a pan-Middle East policy appear more pious than realistic. The powder keg became more volatile yesterday when a Palestinian suicide bomber killed three people and himself in the Israeli resort of Eilat. It was the first such attack in Israel in nine months.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is at the root of the Middle East's problems. Solving it would, if Mr Blair is right, make the task of bringing peace and stability to the wider region less onerous. But that day is far off, even before the Eilat bombing. Whether it disappears beyond the horizon will depend to a large extent on Israel's response. Ehud Olmert, the country's Prime Minister, must surely have learned in Lebanon that military adventures can fail. They can also have unintended consequences. Hizbollah, the Shia-based party, claimed a "divine victory" over Israel and has used the momentum gained to try to overthrow Lebanon's government. Hizbollah has withdrawn from the government and taken to the streets in a way that threatens civil war.
Lebanon is a country in crisis, as is the state of Palestine. The secular Fatah Party of Mahmoud Abbas, the President, is in a daily battle for power with Hamas, the Islamist party that won control of parliament one year ago. Palestine is on a knife-edge, in economic misery because of the international aid embargo and political stasis interrupted only by factional violence. Mr Olmert must also know that months of air strikes and artillery raids have failed to stop the almost daily rocket attacks from Palestine into southern Israel. All that appears to have been achieved has been the killing of hundreds of Palestinians, including civilians, and the recruitment of young men and women to deadly Jihad (yesterday's suicide bomber was apparently motivated in part to avenge the death of his best friend, who, relatives said, had been killed by Israeli troops). Israel must protect its borders and look after its security. But heavy-handed retaliation of the type witnessed in the past would not only fail, it would be fraught with even greater danger, potentially provoking a deadly domino effect.
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