Ownership of Jaguar and Land Rover will pass into the hands of private equity - most of it from Russia or the Middle East - and the companies will be transformed into vibrant, growing concerns within the next three years.
That was the prediction yesterday from the UK's leading automotive industry guru, Professor Peter Cooke, KPMG Professor of Automotive Industry Management at Nottingham Trent University.
He told The Herald yesterday: "I think Jaguar and Land Rover will stay in the UK, but their ownership will move east. The asking price will be about £5bn, and Ford will get it because Jaguar and Land Rover are iconic world brands with global appeal, and that is what venture capitalists like.
"They'll take Jaguar right up market, and push the Land Rover brand. It'll take two or three years to shake the companies up, but at the end they will have a very healthy little enterprise on their hands, a very valuable little enterprise.
"Ford couldn't do that. Ford are into market share, not value-added. They are a classic volume car maker - 3.5 million cars a year worldwide. Jaguar and Land Rover are niche, valued-added manufacturers, with 180,000-200,000 cars a year.
"Plus, Ford is under serious pressure from Asian car makers in their own back yard. Their senior management don't have time to sort out these two tiddlers. That's why it makes sense for Ford to sell."
Ford has briefed MPs on the sale, but would only say yesterday that it had been looking at its options for a year, and that it was neither setting a time frame for any decision, nor ruling out any options.
However, it is expected to make an official announcement in the next few days. It emerged on Monday that the car giant had appointed Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and HSBC to advise it on a possible disposal of the UK car makers.
Yesterday a spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair's office said that it had been in touch with Ford over the company's plans. He said: "We still believe that both Land Rover and Jaguar are highly-successful companies and will have a highly-successful future."
Ford bought Jaguar in 1989 for £1.6bn and Land Rover in 2000 for £1.7bn and the two manufacturers employ around 19,000 workers in the UK.
Ford is in the middle of a major restructuring after it lost a record $12.7bn (£6.4bn) last year. Its UK subsidiary Premier Automotive Group (PAG), which owns Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo, lost $327m.
Cooke believes Ford will be structuring a sale that will allow it to retain an interest in the two car makers, as it did when it sold Aston Martin for £479m. He believes the new owners will be a consortium of venture capitalist groups, with much of the money coming from Russia or the Gulf states.
Cooke believes any deal should be looked on, "as a good thing" and he does not think current union fears over job losses are merited. He said: "Value added will save both brands, and the jobs.
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