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   Web Issue 3498 July 5 2009   
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The Herald

Invocas on the rack as warning echoes
SIMON BAINOctober 10 2008

The bumpy ride for investors in Scottish debt solutions group Invocas continued yesterday, as the company seen as ideally placed to bene-fit from economic disaster lost a third of its value.

Invocas slumped 17.5p to 34.5p after it echoed a veiled warning given in August by the chairman Howard Bell of possible delays in converting a wealth of opportunities into profits.

In April, Invocas warned that profits would be "a little below" forecast and ousted chief executive John Hall, and by June the shares had halved to 39p. However, in July, Hall's successor Stephen Lightley convinced investors of a turnaround, sparking a 40% recovery in the stock to 54p.

Invocas again talked yesterday of "unprecedented levels of personal debt and a reduction in available credit to indebted individuals", which it said would mean "a significant increase in the demand for (our) personal debt solutions in the next 12 months".

But it was forced to admit: "Whilst revenue opportunities continue to improve, conversions, particularly of individual voluntary arrangement (IVA) cases, have taken longer to achieve than previously anticipated. These factors mean that the profit for the six months ended September 30, 2008, will be significantly behind that achieved in the half-year ended September 30, 2007."

Prevailing market conditions made it difficult to predict the outcome for the year, but it was likely to be behind market expectations.

The board said it had made "considerable progress" in the refocusing of its marketing strategy on Newtomorrow, its call centre and marketing subsidiary, which now generated three-quarters of all its revenue leads.

The average number of protected trust deeds (in Scotland) signed each quarter continued to increase, with numbers in the second quarter significantly higher than in the same period last year.

The group was also now seeing an increase in demand for its corporate recovery services.

In August, Bell reported that the group's new team of field advisers covering England and Wales had generated 80 opportunities for IVAs in June, against nil a year earlier, while in the second quarter the group had signed 100 new debt management plan cases, also against nil in 2007.

He said yesterday: "The board remains confident that the benefits of the marketing investment made in this period, which will continue to be made in the next six months, will be felt during the second half of this financial year, which is traditionally stronger, and more fully into the subsequent year."

A strong balance sheet with £2.3m of cash left "significant headroom for further growth".

Invocas recently launched Newtomorrow Broker Services to independent financial advisers in Scotland and says the response has been extremely encouraging. "Active promotion to brokers in England has begun in October and we are now seeing a similarly positive response to the service south of the border."


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