With doom and gloom all around, but summer trying periodically to burst through, it must be time to look for some positive issues to discuss.

Given that all the economic data and analysis, domestic and international, remain deeply depressing, the only scope for the positive lies in assessing the future.

What are the keys to minimising the downside over the months ahead and maximising the prospects for recovering in 2009 and beyond?

Before getting on to the brighter side of life, I suppose that a brief resume of the continuing economic decline is required. UK gross domestic product growth in Q2 (April to June) was very weak and all the evidence from surveys and official data is that the deceleration will continue.

Officially recession comes when GDP actually declines for two successive quarters. We may or may not fall that low, but this is certainly the worst period for our economy since 1993. The consumer side of the economy is now seen to have slowed sharply - with the remarkably robust data for retail sales in May being seen as the statistical blip (or straightforward error) that they always seemed.

Housing market doom and gloom continues, with mortgage approvals down again from a low base. The eurozone now looks to be suffering as much as the UK. While the strength of the euro may be a pest to Scottish tourists it is even more of a problem for eurozone exporters.

Coupled with this slowdown in growth came increased inflation and signs of further rises ahead. Consequently, it was no surprise that one member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate rise in July.

The dilemma the committee faces was summed up by that vote for a rise (by Tim Besley) alongside one for a cut (inevitably David Danny' Blanchflower) and seven voting for no change - and probably wishing that they could run away and hide for a few months. The bias is to further tightening but that is not yet inevitable.

So, can we be positive? What are the key factors that will determine whether this is a short, sharp, shock rather than something even nastier and prolonged? There seem to me to be about half a dozen key points to watch.

First, will the decline in oil prices continue? If this comes about, preferably associated with checks on other commodity price rises, then the international inflationary pressures would decrease, leading to less of a squeeze on consumers and business and less risk of widespread monetary tightening by central banks.

It would also help hugely on the UK inflation front if average earnings growth remains muted. The real risk the MPC worry about is not a short-term inflation spike but the prospect of a return to higher inflation expectations and hence risks of higher embedded inflation, primarily via earnings growth.

Continuing declines in real take-home pay will not be welcome anywhere, but that may be a short-term necessity to help keep interest rates low and the prospects of early recovery alive.

Given some decline in oil prices alongside stability in earnings growth, the next essential is for the MPC to keep its nerve.

By all means let Besley et al talk tough, but given a fair wind on oil and wages they should hold off from rate increases throughout the rest of this year. The economy is too fragile to take chances.

External factors will also matter. For a start, China needs a "good" Olympics. That implies an event that goes down well in the eyes of the world, reinforces China's move into the forefront of the global economy and enhances the prospect of continuing and mutually beneficial co-operation with the Western world. The obverse, leading to a period of tension or Chinese retreat, would spell further bad news and remove one continuing source of global momentum when it is most needed.

An internationally empathetic and economically astute new US President would also help.

Barak Obama's visit around Europe and the Middle East may have been characterised as being as much an attention-seeking stunt as a real attempt to listen and learn; but it was nevertheless remarkably outward-looking by recent US presidential standards.

Whichever candidate wins this autumn must rapidly realise that the US's economic salvation will come not from policies of narrow self interest but from participating in the search for the collective good. As emphasised in this column a couple of months back the US-China economic and financial relationship is absolutely critical for us all.

And finally some signs of returning stability in the financial sector, including prospects of steady enhancement of liquidity would be positive for consumers and business alike.

The result should be availability of credit for consumers willing and well placed to borrow; and access to funds for businesses willing and well placed to invest. Liquidity should not return to pre-credit crunch levels but the present state of affairs adds substantially to economic woes.