The rising price of global of commodities could hamper the growth plans of Scotland's lucrative whisky industry and send the price of a dram soaring, distillers warned yesterday.
While consumers are unlikely to feel the impact immediately, because of the length of the maturation process, producers are already feeling the pinch from fast-rising international grain, fuel and glass costs.
Whisky, once distilled, must mature for several years. While a cheap bottle of blended Scotch, which must be matured for at least three years, sells for as little as £10 in supermarkets, specialist single malts are often matured for 10 years or more and can fetch upwards of £200 a bottle.
Campbell Evans, a spokesman for the Scotch Whisky Association, said: "In the past year, I think grain prices have risen by something like 100%. We've seen fuel rise by 50% to 60% and we've seen glass rise 10% to 20%.
"So there will be an impact on companies in terms of what they're buying in, but in terms of the product coming out into the retail market, the impact will be many years down the track."
The SWA also said the price of wood for casks and of copper, which is used for vats, was also causing major concern in the industry.
Diageo, the world's biggest alcoholic drinks group which makes Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker whisky and Guinness stout, warned last week that its costs for the financial year to June 2008 would rise by about £90m mainly because of increases in energy and grain costs.
Experts are also warning that the pace of expansion plans could be curtailed, because as prices continue to rise margins will be squeezed, and those expected to be hit the heaviest are the growing number of smaller distillers in Scotland.
Asked how much he expected the price of a bottle to rise, one industry insider, who asked not to be named, said: "Knowing our customers, they will expect us to absorb the extra costs."
Doug Ross, a co-founder and director at fledgling, Perthshire-based Tullibardine distillery, said: "We don't have the ability to absorb the extra costs the way the bigger distilleries can.
"Smaller whisky companies like us rely on cashflow. We are hurting already and I fear there is more fear to come."
The biggest commodity price rises that have impacted on the whisky industry in recent months have occurred in European natural gas, grains such as wheat, barley and corn, and crude oil.
Rising global demand, particularly in Asia, the weakening US dollar and volatility in the asset market, have all conspired to push up prices in global commodities markets.
Meanwhile, whisky exports generated a record £2.8bn for the United Kingdom in 2007, up from £2.5bn in 2006, according to the SWA.
The sale of Scotch has soared in recent years on surging demand from areas such as China, India, Russia and parts of South America, and the industry has reacted with multi-million-pound investments in new distilleries. Some 90% of Scotch whisky is exported.
The industry remains optimistic about its prospects, in spite of the surge in commodity prices.
Evans added: "Given the fact that the industry has announced investment of something like £400m over the next three years, we are projecting enormous growth going forward all over the globe."
Meanwhile, another industry insider said: "Like the rest of the UK industry, the Scotch whisky sector is not immune from cost pressures, such as rising prices for cereals, fuel and glass. About 90% of Scotch whisky is sold overseas and rising commodity prices will take time to reach consumers because of production timescales. Companies will review their prices as and when appropriate in light of these cost pressures, and prices are likely to rise over a period of time."
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