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   Web Issue 3271 October 13 2008   
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Scottish Mortgage beats odds
IAN McCONNELL, Business EditorMay 03 2008

James Anderson, whose £2.28bn Scottish Mortgage fund defied an overall fall in world stock markets with investment gains of £159m in the year to March 31, yesterday declared that global turmoil "has created some great opportunities" for him.

He also hammered home his view that gloom about current troubles in Western countries, which are reeling from the global credit crisis, was misplaced. Rather, he is convinced the prevailing turmoil is all about the increasing importance of China and is for the overall global good.

Anderson noted the shift in the global economic balance, which he expects to continue in the same direction over the next 10 to 15 years, is lifting "hundreds of millions of people out of poverty" and up the consumer ladder.

He added this was "much more healthy" than relying on "over-geared hedge funds and property" in the West.

Anderson, who has enjoyed great success with Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust since shaking off the traditional influence of country stock indices to adopt a global approach, said of the current world economic situation: "I am not sure why we should be depressed about this. It is tremendously good news, rather than bad news."

He added: "People's perception of the world has remained so old-fashioned."

Highlighting his experiences on recent trips to China, Anderson said: "It is not people's image of poverty-stricken peasants churning out sewn items for you. It is all the excitement America had 100 years ago or more."

Although admitting "China could go anywhere, there could be (economic) explosions", he added: "I think people underestimate the sheer scale of it, or the sheer excitement of it."

Anderson was speaking to The Herald as the Baillie Gifford-run Scottish Mortgage, the UK's third-biggest conventional investment trust behind Alliance Trust and Foreign & Colonial, announced a 7.3% rise in net asset value per share to 651.4p.

This contrasted with a 3.7% fall in its benchmark, the FTSE All World Index expressed in sterling.

Scottish Mortgage, which has about 10,000 shareholders, has turned in a stellar performance over the last five years. Its 156% total return on net asset value, including capital gains and reinvested dividends, is way ahead of 83% for the All World Index and the 111% average for the Association of Investment Companies' global growth sector.

Anderson, chief investment officer of Edinburgh-based investment house Baillie Gifford, himself cited a view in some quarters that "Scottish Mortgage is taking lots of risk".

However, he declared that people's perception of risk was the "wrong way up". He believed people in the UK and US had been mistaken in being much more worried about China than about their own financial system, which has suffered great turbulence recently.

He noted that low real interest rates and consumer goods price deflation in the UK and America in recent years had been down not to these countries, but to China.

Noting the Chinese had then moved to invest more money "back home", with commodity prices and inflation rising and the renminbi appreciating, he added: "It is all about China."

Highlighting the recent collapse in US and UK banking shares, stocks which Scottish Mortgage has avoided, he said: "There was much more risk of permanent loss of capital (from) investing in things that were big in the British and American (stock) indices, like banks, than in (Brazilian oil company) Petrobras and China Mobile.

"In many ways, I think we are actually doing something that is lower risk than sticking to big index holdings."

Anderson noted the general view appeared to be that, when there was an economic downturn of whatever duration in the US, it dragged down the rest of the world.

He used Swedish engineer Atlas Copco, his fund's second-largest holding at March 31, to highlight the ever-greater global nature of companies and increasing irrelevance of where they were listed.

Anderson said Atlas had gained exposure to China and India years ago, now had 40% exposure to emerging markets, and had been buying now in-demand mining equipment businesses when people had been "wondering why".

He noted Atlas Copco's biggest growth had actually been in America.

Anderson said: "The reason their American orders are going up is because the American coal industry has gone from almost 100 years of decline to being competitive in world terms because of the need for energy and the decline of the dollar."

US internet search engine company Google and Japanese computer games company Nintendo are among the stocks which Scottish Mortgage has been buying recently.

Anderson said: "One of the common ingredients with Google and Nintendo is competing with Microsoft, which is a good thing to do."

He said Google's share price had fallen by about 40% between December and March - for no real reason other than "because people are scared" about the wider economic picture.

"People really threw the baby out with the bathwater," said Anderson.

He noted people became "petrified" Nintendo would be hit by a collapse in consumption in Western markets.

In fact, Nintendo has faced a challenge to produce enough DS and Wii consoles to meet strong worldwide demand.

Anderson also cited Scottish Mortgage's significant stake in German luxury car-maker Porsche. He said "everyone seems" to think Porsches had to be sold to London and American investment bankers but pointed out the market could "easily transfer" to Hong Kong and Russia.

He considers some of his investments "controversial". He believes Russian gas giant Gazprom remains controversial even though it has returned 750% in five years.

Anderson said: "The hypothesis was, Is it easier being a foreign company investing in Russia than being Gazprom investing in Russia?'"

Referring to Dmitry Medvedev in the context of Gazprom, Anderson noted it was not every day that a chairman of a company went on to become president of the country.

And, in spite of the surge in Gazprom, Anderson noted its valuation in per-barrel-equivalent terms was still little more than one-tenth of Western competitors.

He believes Scottish Mortgage's investment in renewable energy firms, such as wind power system manufacturer Vestas, and solar energy companies Q-cells and First Solar are "controversial" but sees big potential in this arena.

Scottish Mortgage is raising its total dividend by 8.4% to 10.3p, with a final pay-out of 5.3p.


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