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   Web Issue 3499 July 6 2009   
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The Herald

Sentance warns of inflation danger
IAN McCONNELL, Business EditorMarch 15 2007

Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance struck a characteristically hawkish tone in a speech in Edinburgh last night - increasing further already sky-high expectations that he continued to push unsuccessfully for an immediate rise in interest rates last week.

Sentance, who was formerly chief economist of British Airways, hammered home his view that consumer spending growth must slow if inflation were to be kept under control.

Noting the 10 years from 1995 to 2005 had seen average annual consumer spending growth of 3.5%, he declared: "The sustainable growth of consumer spending going forward is likely to be closer to the historical average of around 2.5% growth and lower than the recent trend of 3.5%."

Sentance cited strong global markets, rising business investment and significantly lower unemployment than in the mid-1990s as reasons for this. He also made plain his view that rates should not be set lower than they would be otherwise just because of falling markets.

Although markets bounced back yesterday, they remain well adrift of peaks hit in February. Citing "significant current account imbalances", he said: "Worries about a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances may be adding to the recent volatility we have seen in world financial markets."

However, he declared: "There is the risk of repeating the mistakes of 1987, when loosening of monetary policy in response to falling stock markets was overdone and provided a further boost to the late-1980s' demand-led boom."

Sentance has been astonishingly hawkish since joining the Bank of England's nine-strong MPC in October, voting for quarter-point rises not only when base rates were increased in November and January but also unsuccessfully when they were held in October and February. It is almost certain he pushed for a rise again when base rates were held at 5.25% last week. The split of this vote will be revealed next Wednesday.


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