
SNP downplays a performance high
ON the face of it, the latest numbers on Scotland's manufactured exports are worth a cheer or two.
In the April-June quarter, total export sales rose 4.4% in real terms, the sharpest quarterly increase in nine years.
On the Scottish Government's own detailed figures, the last time Scottish exports grew this fast was in the second quarter of 1998, when output from Silicon Glen was still powering towards its post-millennial peak and together with other sectors, like whisky, was spelling boom time for Scotland's trade with the rest of the world.
That surge did not survive the bursting of the global tech bubble or rapid retrenchment in more margin-sensitive areas of volume IT production. Indeed, after that 2000 performance spike, 2004 found us back, in overall export terms, where we had been in the mid-1990s.
But that boom-bust episode has since stabilised and our manufactured exports are showing some signs of renewed vigour. On an annualised basis, Scottish export sales are up 3.6% in these latest returns. And the improvement has come without too much assistance from what remains of our electronics sector.
The silicon industries are still our largest single export contributor by far. Last year the electrical and instrument engineering sector (the official proxy for electronics) accounted for 34% of all Scottish exports. But at peak, in 2000, the sector accounted for 58% of total exports. Its contribution has been flat-lining for most of the past three years.
The drinks sector, dominated by whisky, accounted for 22% of total exports in 2006. But overall Scottish engineering is still more than twice as important, contributing 49% of everything we exported last year.
The grounds for a cheer or two seem obvious enough to me. But Scotland's Enterprise Minister, Jim Mather, was determined to greet them in a rather more curmudgeonly way.
| Mather’s press release was headlined in glass half-empty style | |
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Where his LibDem predecessor would predictably have squeezed every last ounce of political capital out of a nine-year performance high, Mather's press release was headlined, in true glass-half-empty style: "No room for complacency."
The only upbeat comment the minister allowed himself was an admission that he was "encouraged by these latest figures". The rest of his remarks were determinedly downbeat.
"It is important not to be complacent and lose sight of the fact that growth has been modest in previous quarters," he went
on. "The Scottish government recognises that Scotland's economy has underperformed historically and we must do more to give Scotland a competitive edge. We must aspire to the kind of performance achieved by countries such as Ireland, Norway and Iceland, the arc of prosperity that surrounds us.
"Reform of the enterprise networks, outlined in parliament just last week, as well as other economic policies, will ultimately help us achieve our goal of increased, sustainable growth. And the government's economic strategy, to be published in the next few weeks, will help the whole of Scotland focus on raising Scotland's growth rate to the UK level by 2011."
Clearly an export performance that straddled May's Holyrood poll owes little to the actions of the new nationalist government. But doesn't Mather's attempt to damn these good export numbers with such faint praise smack of something else?
A refusal to acknowledge any evidence that might challenge the SNP's own prevailing narrative on Scotland's economic condition - that our economy has been underperforming for 30 years or more, that remaining part of Britain is an economic cul-de-sac and that only independence and the freedom to make big cuts in the tax on business profits will ever turn things round.
It's a take on these latest figures that does a serious disservice to all the people who have worked so hard, after the export slump from 2000 to 2004, to rebuild markets and open up new ones and who have been doing it regardless of which political party is in power at Holyrood.
I gather the minister has taken to describing his government's objective of raising Scotland's growth rate to match the UK as a whole by 2011 as the administration's "north star". But is he really asking us to believe that none of the other stars in the sky can, from time to time, illuminate our economic journey?
The rise and partial fall of Scotland's electronics sector which, as his own department's statistics note acknowledges, grew by 124.6% between 1995 and 2000, but fell back by 65.9% between 2000 and 2004, was not primarily caused by which party happened to be in power in Scotland or, I venture, the level at which corporation tax was set.
The willingness of policymakers to attract mobile investment in the silicon sector to these shores, to offset relentless job losses in more traditional industries certainly left Scotland much more exposed to any IT downturn than other places, as some of us warned at the time.
But the downturn itself was down to global forces from which even an independent Scotland would not be immune. The fact that we've come out the other end of that with an exports recovery in which electronics is still accounting for a third of the action is surely worth a bit more encouragement than the minister is minded to offer.
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Posted by: graeme, Edinburgh on 7:50am Thu 4 Oct 07
one sunny day a summer dinsae make - I think was his message Alf. 4.4% should be slightly above average not cause for celebration please please raise your game, set the bar for success not slow relentless shrinking and ultimate failure
one sunny day a summer dinsae make - I think was his message Alf. 4.4% should be slightly above average not cause for celebration please please raise your game, set the bar for success not slow relentless shrinking and ultimate failure
Posted by: Willie, West Dumbarton on 8:53am Thu 4 Oct 07
What Scotland wants, and requires, is consistent above average economic performance and not mediocre or below average performance.
Scotland has underperformed in relation to Ireland, Norway and Iceland and we want to be up there with these countries. This I believe was what Jim Mather was saying.
Alf, if Jim Mather had said we were the shining light in the Western hemisphere then I think you would have had something to say about misplaced optimism and one swallow not making a summer.
What Scotland wants, and requires, is consistent above average economic performance and not mediocre or below average performance.
Scotland has underperformed in relation to Ireland, Norway and Iceland and we want to be up there with these countries. This I believe was what Jim Mather was saying.
Alf, if Jim Mather had said we were the shining light in the Western hemisphere then I think you would have had something to say about misplaced optimism and one swallow not making a summer.
Posted by: Alex Cox, Bearsden on 10:40am Thu 4 Oct 07
Criticism of the SNP - Check.
Attack on Jim Mather - Check.
All half-decent news linked to Act of Union - Check.
Over-egging any good news - Check.
Refusal to believe lower tax burden would help business - Check.
Passive praise for Labour Party - Check.
Failure to mention child poverty levels - Check.
Do you still write these articles Alf, or have you some sort of software which simply regurgitates yhe unoriginal spin you've been peddling for donkey's years?
Criticism of the SNP - Check.
Attack on Jim Mather - Check.
All half-decent news linked to Act of Union - Check.
Over-egging any good news - Check.
Refusal to believe lower tax burden would help business - Check.
Passive praise for Labour Party - Check.
Failure to mention child poverty levels - Check.
Do you still write these articles Alf, or have you some sort of software which simply regurgitates yhe unoriginal spin you've been peddling for donkey's years?
Posted by: Sean Gaughan, Norway on 10:59am Thu 4 Oct 07
hahaha , excellent Alex Cox ! Im gonna copy and paste that list you made there cos it certainly does seem to be a standard by which many journalists seem to use in Scotland.
hahaha , excellent Alex Cox ! Im gonna copy and paste that list you made there cos it certainly does seem to be a standard by which many journalists seem to use in Scotland.
Posted by: Bruce on 10:59am Thu 4 Oct 07
Scotland has some terrificly great export industries such as Alexander Dennis, Clyde Pumps, and others which are very succesful. I'd be very interested to hear what the views of their leaders are in relation to the Scottish economy.
Scotland has some terrificly great export industries such as Alexander Dennis, Clyde Pumps, and others which are very succesful. I'd be very interested to hear what the views of their leaders are in relation to the Scottish economy.
Posted by: ronan dodworth, glasgow on 12:26pm Thu 4 Oct 07
Alf
Are you as stupid as you look?
Do labour spin doctors write your sad pathetic excuse for a column
Jim Mather is saying we could do much better that is all
You cant write, you cant debate and you should be in tescos stacking shelves not writing for an erstwhile reputable newspaper
Alf
Are you as stupid as you look?
Do labour spin doctors write your sad pathetic excuse for a column
Jim Mather is saying we could do much better that is all
You cant write, you cant debate and you should be in tescos stacking shelves not writing for an erstwhile reputable newspaper
Posted by: Mike MacKenzie, Argyll on 1:06pm Thu 4 Oct 07
Even Alf Young would surely welcome healthier growth. He is a man so keen to always say something negative about SNP that he leaves his wits, such as they are, well behind him.
Even Alf Young would surely welcome healthier growth. He is a man so keen to always say something negative about SNP that he leaves his wits, such as they are, well behind him.
Posted by: martin, dundee on 4:42pm Thu 4 Oct 07
So many years of Labour in Scotland have left many commentators like Alf Young with low expectations, able to cheer even modest gains.Well, things are different now and expectations for the Scottish economy are much higher under this government.
Low expectations have meant a dependency culture.Maybe that was to keep the country wedded to the Union.Now, thankfully, we have a new breed of politician in Scotland.They just want Scotland to perform to it best, not underachieve as has been the case in the past.
So many years of Labour in Scotland have left many commentators like Alf Young with low expectations, able to cheer even modest gains.Well, things are different now and expectations for the Scottish economy are much higher under this government.
Low expectations have meant a dependency culture.Maybe that was to keep the country wedded to the Union.Now, thankfully, we have a new breed of politician in Scotland.They just want Scotland to perform to it best, not underachieve as has been the case in the past.
Posted by: A fairly typical Nat blogger, Edinburgh on 11:03pm Thu 4 Oct 07
You should be fired from this or any other newspaper for comments like this.
It is the duty of every patriotic Scot to criticise Labour's record and so help the only party that will free us from the yoke of English tyranny and oppression under which we Scots - and big Scots for that matter - have had to endure ever since we were sold down the river by the parcel of rogues in 1707- a year that will live in infamy.
Who cares about economic facts or the truth for that matter. I have a romantic dream to realise.
Alf Young you are a traitor and a disgrace to journalism,
You should be fired from this or any other newspaper for comments like this.
It is the duty of every patriotic Scot to criticise Labour's record and so help the only party that will free us from the yoke of English tyranny and oppression under which we Scots - and big Scots for that matter - have had to endure ever since we were sold down the river by the parcel of rogues in 1707- a year that will live in infamy.
Who cares about economic facts or the truth for that matter. I have a romantic dream to realise.
Alf Young you are a traitor and a disgrace to journalism,
Posted by: Split Personality on 11:18pm Thu 4 Oct 07
Well said Martin in Dundee, What we want is to slash taxes, end 50 years of socialist dependency culture, and at long last encourage a spirit of real free enterprise to put Scotland's economy up there with the best of them
Only then will we get rid of "Maggie" Broon and his right wing Thatcherite ideas
Well said Martin in Dundee, What we want is to slash taxes, end 50 years of socialist dependency culture, and at long last encourage a spirit of real free enterprise to put Scotland's economy up there with the best of them
Only then will we get rid of "Maggie" Broon and his right wing Thatcherite ideas
Posted by: Fergus, Stirling on 10:27am Fri 5 Oct 07
The comments that disparage this journalist are an utter outrage. What is your objective? To intimidate the man from writing what he thinks? I am a trained economist with no political leanings whatsoever - but this is a reasonable argument, maybe not perfect, but certainly perfectly reasonable.
Just because you don't agree with him doesn't mean 1) he is wrong and 2) he has no right to express his view.
The comments that disparage this journalist are an utter outrage. What is your objective? To intimidate the man from writing what he thinks? I am a trained economist with no political leanings whatsoever - but this is a reasonable argument, maybe not perfect, but certainly perfectly reasonable.
Just because you don't agree with him doesn't mean 1) he is wrong and 2) he has no right to express his view.
Posted by: Alex, Glasgow on 6:31pm Sat 6 Oct 07
Fergus.
I can also lay claim to being an economist; Alf Young of course cannot, being a former teacher and then a Labour party spin doctor. From there he went on to write on economic and business matters for The Herald, and knows his stuff despite his obvious political leanings and frankly unprofessionally obvious dislike of Jim Mather, being continually recurring themes in the discolouring of his columns.
As for intimidating him - that's hilarious. If the Westminster Government's ministerial code failed to intimidate him from seeking to help Labour ministers breach it in the 1970s when he deliberately sought ot misinform and disinform the Scottish electorate in the 1970s with skewed and wholly manufactured figures on oil revenue, I am sure his skin is thick enough to endure criticism of his writing on The Herald's web pages.
In fact, given that this newspaper openly encourages readers to participate in debate on said matters, if anyone is seeking to undermine scrutiny of the truth and how it is spun, then it is those who immediately cry foul whenever these comments display a tendency to examine the motivation for said spin. Folk like you, Fergus...
Fergus.
I can also lay claim to being an economist; Alf Young of course cannot, being a former teacher and then a Labour party spin doctor. From there he went on to write on economic and business matters for The Herald, and knows his stuff despite his obvious political leanings and frankly unprofessionally obvious dislike of Jim Mather, being continually recurring themes in the discolouring of his columns.
As for intimidating him - that's hilarious. If the Westminster Government's ministerial code failed to intimidate him from seeking to help Labour ministers breach it in the 1970s when he deliberately sought ot misinform and disinform the Scottish electorate in the 1970s with skewed and wholly manufactured figures on oil revenue, I am sure his skin is thick enough to endure criticism of his writing on The Herald's web pages.
In fact, given that this newspaper openly encourages readers to participate in debate on said matters, if anyone is seeking to undermine scrutiny of the truth and how it is spun, then it is those who immediately cry foul whenever these comments display a tendency to examine the motivation for said spin. Folk like you, Fergus...
Posted by: bigwillie, somewhere on 11:39am Tue 9 Oct 07
Alf Young...............
....................
....more like Alf Garnet, at laest you could laugh at him, Young you are Scotland's Shame supporting a half baked Labour with a useless leader in wicked wendy
Alf Young...............
....................
....more like Alf Garnet, at laest you could laugh at him, Young you are Scotland's Shame supporting a half baked Labour with a useless leader in wicked wendy
Posted by: Bobo on 4:29pm Tue 9 Oct 07
What an extraordinary article. It reminds me of McConnell's response to reasonable criticisms of his administration and their inability to place Scotland anywhere near the top of European league tables for economic success. The critics were he said "talking Scotland down". No, they were pointing out that Scotland could and should do better. If Alf Young thinks that this is the best we can do that's his problem. Some of us have ambitions to be a lot better than a moderately performing region of the UK and we suspect that it is a vision which many Scots feel inspired by.
What an extraordinary article. It reminds me of McConnell's response to reasonable criticisms of his administration and their inability to place Scotland anywhere near the top of European league tables for economic success. The critics were he said "talking Scotland down". No, they were pointing out that Scotland could and should do better. If Alf Young thinks that this is the best we can do that's his problem. Some of us have ambitions to be a lot better than a moderately performing region of the UK and we suspect that it is a vision which many Scots feel inspired by.
